The BlueSky smoke modeling framework

Abstract

Smoke from fire is a local, regional and often international issue that is growing in complexity as competition for airshed resources increases. BlueSky is a smoke modeling framework designed to help address this problem by enabling simulations of the cumulative smoke impacts from fires (prescribed, wildland, and agricultural) across a region. Versions of BlueSky have been implemented in prediction systems across the contiguous US, and land managers, air-quality regulators, incident command teams, and the general public can currently obtain BlueSky-based predictions of smoke impacts for their region. A highly modular framework, BlueSky links together a variety of state-of-the-art models of meteorology, fuels, consumption, emissions, and air quality, and offers multiple model choices at each modeling step. This modularity also allows direct comparison between similar component models. This paper presents the overall model framework Version 2.5 – the component models, how they are linked together, and the results from case studies of two wildfires. Predicted results are affected by the specific choice of modeling pathway. With the pathway chosen, the modeled output generally compares well with plume shape and extent as observed by satellites, but underpredicts surface concentrations as observed by ground monitors. Sensitivity studies show that knowledge of fire behavior can greatly improve the accuracy of these smoke impact calculations.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources to ambient ammonia in the Athabasca Oil Sands and north-western Canada

“…CW-FIS uses fire hotspots detected by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite imagery as inputs. Daily total emissions per hotspot are then estimated by the Fire Emission Production Simulator module of the BlueSky modelling framework (Larkin et al, 2009). SMOKE was then used to prepare model-ready hourly emissions of several species (including NH 3 ) in a point-source format for model input.…”

Atmospheric impacts of the 2010 Russian wildfires: integrating modelling and measurements of an extreme air pollution episode in the Moscow region

“…However, inclusion of fire emissions in the model did not allow improving temporal variability of AOT data at specific locations of the AERONET monitoring network. Larkin et al (2009) presented a modeling framework enabling simulations of the cumulative smoke impacts from fires across the USA. They showed that the modeled output generally compared well with satellite plume observations, but underpredicted measured PM 2.5 concentrations during the considered episode.…”

“…They showed that the modeled output generally compared well with satellite plume observations, but underpredicted measured PM 2.5 concentrations during the considered episode. While Wang et al (2006), Hodzic et al (2007) and Larkin et al (2009) used wildfire emission inventories based on the burned area approach, Sofiev et al (2009) derived aerosol fire emissions from FRP measurements. Their emission estimates were then used in the SILAM CTM to simulate PM 2.5 concentrations and columns.…”

New Tools for Estimating and Managing Local/Regional Air Quality Impacts of Prescribed Burns

“…Pursuant to the need for an alternative to CMAQ, scientists developed the BlueSky framework to meet the need of accurately forecasting smoke dispersion and settling (Larkin et al,2009). BlueSky ( Figure 3-42) is a framework that contains and combines models and data about weather, fires and fuels, emissions, and terrain.…”