The binomial-match, outcome uncertainty, and the case of netball

Abstract

We introduce the binomial-match as a model for the bivariate score in a paired-contest. This model is naturally associated with sports in which the restart alternates following a goal. The model is a challenger to the Poisson-match, a pair of independent Poisson random variables whose means are related to the strengths of the competing teams. We use the binomial-match primarily to study the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring-rate, particularly for high values of the scoring-rate. Netball has a high scoring-rate and motivates our model development. In the binomial-match framework, we also evaluate rule-variations, and study tactical play in netball. Our analysis suggests that the binomial-match is not a better forecaster than the Poisson-match, but it is better for representing outcome uncertainty and evaluating rule-variations and tactics. In general, we find that the binomial-match implies greater outcome uncertainty than the Poisson match, for a given scoring-rate, and that an alternating-restart is a good rule for reducing the frequency of tied outcomes. For netball in particular, we show that starting the final quarter with possession in a close, balanced match may confer a significant advantage.

Exploration of collective tactical variables in elite netball: An analysis of team and sub-group positioning behaviours

“…One sport which has yet to explore collective tactical variables is netball. Netball research has previously investigated match and training physical profiles [38][39][40][41][42], technical aspects utilising notational methods [43,44] and more recently non-linear analysis and machine learning techniques to account for the dynamic nature of the sport [45][46][47][48][49][50][51]. However, one area of research which is yet to be studied is collective team behaviours, with a recent systematic review highlighting no such research articles having been published on netball, [52] with a number of additional studies suggesting future research is required in team and player positioning [49,53,54].…”

A unified theory for bivariate scores in possessive ball-sports: The case of handball

“…The restart rule determines which competitor starts with possession following a score. Baker, Chadwick, Parma and Scarf (2021) discuss the case of an alternating restart and a model they call the binomial-match. The alternating restart ignores which competitor scores, and possession simply alternates, ABABA… Netball uses this rule.…”