The biggest drought events in Europe from 1950 to 2012

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, J.; Barbosa, Paulo

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.01.001

Cited by 286 publications

(260 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Indeed, while in continental Europe dry periods have been identified in the 20th century [63][64][65], the 2000s have been characterized by an increase in drought frequency and severity in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean area [66,67], but also in some areas of Russia. In particular, Northern and Eastern Europe showed the highest drought frequency and severity from the early 1950s to the mid-1970s while Southern and Western Europe showed the highest drought frequency and severity from the early 1990s onwards [68,69]. These trend behaviors in the Euro-Mediterranean area could be related to teleconnection patterns which reflect large-scale changes in the atmospheric wave and influence temperature, rainfall, storm tracks, jet stream location and intensity over vast areas [70,71].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Caloiero

Veltri²,

Caloiero³

et al. 2018

Water

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Abstract:In this study, drought events over a large area of the Northern Hemisphere, including continental Europe, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the Mediterranean basin, were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various times scales (3, 6, 12, and 24 months). To this purpose, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Monthly Product Version 2018 data set, with spatial resolutions of 0.5 • longitude/latitude and for the period 1951-2016, has been used. First, the temporal evolution of the percentage of grid points, falling within the severe and extreme drought categories, has been evaluated. Then, a trend analysis has been performed at a seasonal scale, considering the autumn-winter and the spring-summer periods, and at an annual scale. The results of this paper highlight that the Mediterranean basin and North Africa are the most consistently vulnerable areas showing a general reduction in SPI values especially for the long time scale.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Caloiero

Veltri²,

Caloiero³

et al. 2018

Water

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“…The social, environmental and economic impacts of drought, as well as its features, have been studied in numerous studies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Since 1950, a positive tendency of drought patterns has been observed over some regions of the globe [8][9][10], in part due to global warming [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

Moreira

Russo

Trigo

2018

Water

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Drought class transitions over a sector of Eastern Europe were modeled using log-linear models. These drought class transitions were computed from time series of two widely used multiscale drought indices, the Standardized Preipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with temporal scales of 6 and 12 months for 15 points selected from a grid over the Prut basin in Romania over a period of 112 years . The modeling also took into account the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), exploring the potential influence of this large-scale atmospheric driver on the climate of the Prut region. To assess the probability of transition among different drought classes we computed their odds and the corresponding confidence intervals. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of the modeling, skill scores were computed and used for comparison against benchmark models, namely using persistence forecasts or modeling without the influence of the NAO index. The main results indicate that the log-linear modeling performs consistently better than the persistence forecast, and the highest improvements obtained in the skill scores with the introduction of the NAO predictor in the modeling are obtained when modeling the extended winter months of the SPEI6 and SPI12. The improvements are however not impressive, ranging between 4.7 and 6.8 for the SPEI6 and between 4.1 and 10.1 for the SPI12, in terms of the Heidke skill score.

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“…With a total of 58 days (19 more than the second highest value shared between 1915, 1947 and 1957), the CDD index value in 1959 stands out remarkably in the time-series (Figure 4). An attribution analysis is beyond the scope of this paper; however, we note that the 1959 drought, which affected over ten million people, is the most severe UK national scale drought in independent 229-and 63-year drought indices and not localised to WP [37,38].…”

Section: Historical Trends In Mean and Extreme Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

A 133-Year Record of Climate Change and Variability from Sheffield, England

Cropper

Cropper²

2016

Climate

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Abstract:A 133-year length daily climate record from Sheffield, England (53.38 • N, 1.49 • W) is analysed. Across the entire length of the record, there are significant warming trends annually and for all seasons, whereas precipitation shows a significant annual increase but the seasonal trends, whilst all positive, are not significant. Trends in extreme indices mirror the mean long-term warming and wetting signal. Record hot and cold daily temperatures and precipitation amounts are associated with summer anticyclonic conditions, an anomalous easterly winter jet stream and summer cyclonic activity, respectively. Whilst there are large uncertainties surrounding the calculation of return periods for the daily maximum, minimum and precipitation records from a single record, our best estimates suggest that in the current climate (2015), the existing records have return periods of 38, 529 and 252 years, respectively. The influence of several climate indices on mean and extreme indices are considered on seasonal scales, with the North Atlantic Oscillation displaying the strongest relationship. Future mean maximum temperature and precipitation alongside extreme indices representing the warmest and wettest day of the year are analysed from two downscaled climate model output archives under analysis periods of a 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world and the 2080-2099 end of 21st century period. For this mid-latitude location, there is minimal difference in model projections between a 1.5 and 2 degree world, but a significant difference between the 1.5/2 degree world and the end of century 2080-2099 period under the most severe climate warming scenarios.

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The biggest drought events in Europe from 1950 to 2012

Cited by 286 publications

References 67 publications

Drought Analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought Analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

A 133-Year Record of Climate Change and Variability from Sheffield, England

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