The Benefits of Hindsight and Modern Risk Assessment Tools: An Evaluation of Minnesota’s COVID-19 Early Release Program

Abstract

Given the devastating effects of COVID-19 on congregate living settings, many correctional agencies have been forced to expedite the release of incarcerated persons beginning in 2020. This research evaluated the recidivism outcomes of 158 individuals released early from prison in response to the pandemic compared to a similar cohort of standard releases. Cox regression analyses revealed that individuals released early were no more or less likely to be re-arrested or returned to prison for a supervision violation compared to the control sample, but they were significantly less likely to be convicted of a new offense. This research demonstrated that carefully selected low-risk individuals can be released early from prison without compromising public safety.