The beneficial effects of vaccination on the evolution of seasonal influenza

Wen, Frank; Malani, Anup; Cobey, Sarah

doi:10.1101/162545

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…In conclusion, our model suggests three specific risk factors that favour the emergence and establishment of a vaccine-resistant strain that are intuitively obvious: high probability of initial emergence of the resistant strain, high number of infected individuals 50 and low rate of vaccination 51 . By contrast, a counterintuitive result of our analysis is that the highest risk of resistant strain establishment occurs when a large fraction of the population has already been vaccinated but the transmission is not controlled (see ref.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 86%

SARS-CoV-2 transmission, vaccination rate and the fate of resistant strains

Dermitzakis

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic [1,2]. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains [3-6] may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic [7,8]. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model [9,10] with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. We found a counterintuitive result that the highest probability for the establishment of the resistant strain comes at a time of reduced non-pharmaceutical intervention measures when most individuals of the population have been vaccinated. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions [7,11,12] throughout the entire vaccination period.

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Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 86%

SARS-CoV-2 transmission, vaccination rate and the fate of resistant strains

Dermitzakis

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The reduced transmission and lower prevalence have several effects that individually and together tend to reduce the probability that variants with a fitness advantage, such as immune escape, will arise and spread 32 . The first is that with fewer infected hosts, there are fewer opportunities for new mutations to arise — reducing the available genetic variation on which selection can act.…”

Section: Evolutionary Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination

et al. 2021

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When vaccines are in limited supply, expanding the number of people who receive some vaccine, such as by halving doses or increasing the interval between doses, can reduce disease and mortality compared with concentrating available vaccine doses in a subset of the population. A corollary of such dose-sparing strategies is that the vaccinated individuals may have less protective immunity. Concerns have been raised that expanding the fraction of the population with partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could increase selection for vaccine-escape variants, ultimately undermining vaccine effectiveness. We argue that, although this is possible, preliminary evidence instead suggests such strategies should slow the rate of viral escape from vaccine or naturally induced immunity. As long as vaccination provides some protection against escape variants, the corresponding reduction in prevalence and incidence should reduce the rate at which new variants are generated and the speed of adaptation. Because there is little evidence of efficient immune selection of SARS-CoV-2 during typical infections, these population-level effects are likely to dominate vaccine-induced evolution.

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“…The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 1, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.31.21258018 doi: medRxiv preprint fluenza (Bush et al, 1999;Gupta et al, 1998;Bedford et al, 2012;Koelle and Rasmussen, 2015;Wen et al, 2020) and similar approaches could possibly be applied for SARS-CoV-2. Our modeling approach relies on estimating a relationship between neutralizing antibodies and different correlates of protection, and the data used to establish these estimates are scarce and uncertain, especially for low levels of neutralizing antibodies.…”

Section: As Evidence Builds That Vaccine Efficacy Varies Considerably Across Vaccines and Variants (Ikegamementioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the role of naturally- and vaccine-derived neutralizing antibodies as a correlate of protection against COVID-19 variants

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Early waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were driven by importation events and subsequent policy responses. However, epidemic dynamics in 2021 are largely driven by the spread of more transmissible and/or immune-evading variants, which in turn are countered by vaccination programs. Here we describe updates to the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator) to account for immune trajectories over time, correlates of protection, co-circulation of different variants and the roll-out of multiple vaccines. We have extended recent work on neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) as a correlate of protection to account for protection against infection, symptomatic COVID-19, and severe disease using a joint estimation approach. We find that NAbs are strongly correlated with infection blocking and that natural infection provides stronger protection than vaccination for the same level of NAbs, though vaccines typically produce higher NAbs. We find only relatively weak correlations between NAbs and the probability of developing symptoms given a breakthrough infection, or the probability of severe disease given symptoms. A more refined understanding of breakthrough infections in individuals with natural and vaccine-derived immunity will have implications for timing of booster vaccines, the impact of emerging variants of concern on critical vaccination thresholds, and the need for ongoing non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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The beneficial effects of vaccination on the evolution of seasonal influenza

Cited by 10 publications

References 85 publications

SARS-CoV-2 transmission, vaccination rate and the fate of resistant strains

SARS-CoV-2 transmission, vaccination rate and the fate of resistant strains

Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination

Quantifying the role of naturally- and vaccine-derived neutralizing antibodies as a correlate of protection against COVID-19 variants

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