The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa

Abstract

The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took the world by surprise. Following the first outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although the spread of COVID-19 is being slowed down by vaccination and other interventions, there is still a need to have a clear understanding of the evolution of the pandemic across countries, states and communities. To this end, there is a need to have a clearer picture of the initial spread of the disease in different regions. In this project, we used a simple SEIR model and a Bayesian inference framework to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) and 9.66 (Mauritius), with a median of 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31–4.12). The estimates provided in this paper will help to inform COVID-19 modeling in the respective countries/regions.

Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Among Five High Burden African Countries

“…In the case of the Southern African countries, the basic reproduction number (R0) for South Africa was estimated to be 7.02. 17 This was followed by Zambia with R0 = 2.59 and Namibia with R0 = 2.37. 17 The reproduction number for Malawi was 2.16.…”

“… 17 This was followed by Zambia with R0 = 2.59 and Namibia with R0 = 2.37. 17 The reproduction number for Malawi was 2.16. 17 Among the Central African countries considered, Cameroon had an R0 of 3.74, Chad (2.03), 17 Gabon (2.37), 17 and the Republic of the Congo (2.54).…”

“… 17 The reproduction number for Malawi was 2.16. 17 Among the Central African countries considered, Cameroon had an R0 of 3.74, Chad (2.03), 17 Gabon (2.37), 17 and the Republic of the Congo (2.54). 17 Of these countries, Cameroon was the first to be infected with COVID-19, followed by the Republic of the Congo, Gabon, and Chad.…”

“… 17 Among the Central African countries considered, Cameroon had an R0 of 3.74, Chad (2.03), 17 Gabon (2.37), 17 and the Republic of the Congo (2.54). 17 Of these countries, Cameroon was the first to be infected with COVID-19, followed by the Republic of the Congo, Gabon, and Chad. Among the African island nations, 18 Madagascar (4.97) and Mauritius (9.66) showed the highest breeding numbers.…”

“…Among the African island nations, 18 Madagascar (4.97) and Mauritius (9.66) showed the highest breeding numbers. 17 In North Africa, Morocco (3.92) is estimated to have the highest basic reproduction number, followed by Tunisia (3.87), Algeria (3.31), and Egypt (2.72). 13 , 17 Similar results were obtained in East African countries.…”