The Baltic Sea a century ago — a reconstruction from model simulations, verified by observations

Savchuk, Oleg; Wulff, Fredrik; Hille, Sven; Humborg, Christoph; Pollehne, Falk

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.03.008

Cited by 112 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…About 85 million people live in the Baltic catchment area which is four times larger than the Baltic Sea surface area (e.g., Leppäranta and Myrberg 2009). During the past 100 years, parts of the Baltic Sea have changed from oligotrophic to eutrophic systems, caused by human-induced nutrient load increases (Elmgren 2001;Savchuk et al 2008;Gustafsson et al 2012). As a consequence of eutrophication, environmental problems like spreading of hypoxia and increased frequency and intensity of cyanobacteria blooms have been observed (Vahtera et al 2007).…”

Section: Introduction the Baltic Sea Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Meier

Müller‐Karulis

Andersson

et al. 2012

AMBIO

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113

115

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Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission 0 s (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

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Section: Introduction the Baltic Sea Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Meier

Müller‐Karulis

Andersson

et al. 2012

AMBIO

Self Cite

113

115

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“…Results from modelling studies differ. An increase in primary production since 1900 by a factor of three and even six were reported by Savchuk et al (2008) and Gustafsson et al (2012), respectively.…”

Section: Past Changesmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Furthermore, budgets for CO 2 and total N in the surface water of the central Baltic Sea indicated an increase in N fixation by cyanobacteria of 30 % within the past two decades (Schneider et al 2009). Model studies suggest a fourfold ) to 10-fold (Savchuk et al 2008) increase in N fixation since 1900.…”

Section: Past Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adding an atmospheric deposition of 198,000 t N year −1 (Bartnicki et al 2011) yields a total N input to the Baltic Sea of 840,000 t N year −1 (Table 18.1). According to HELCOM (2011), the atmospheric P deposition contributes 5 % to the total P input (1500 t P year −1 ) resulting in a total input of 30,200 t P year −1 ( Attempts have been made to estimate nutrient inputs at the beginning of the last century when the influence of human activities was low (Larsson et al 1985;Savchuk et al 2008). Gustafsson et al (2012) used data from different sources to reconstruct the N and P inputs to the various basins of the Baltic Sea including the Kattegat since 1850 ( Fig.…”

Section: Nutrient Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental Impacts—Marine Biogeochemistry

Schneider

Eilola

Lukkari

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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Marine biogeochemistry deals with the budgets and transformations of biogeochemically reactive elements such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. Inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus compounds are the major nutrients and control organic matter (biomass) production in the surface water. Due to various anthropogenic activities, the input of these nutrients into the Baltic Sea has increased drastically during the last century and has enhanced the net organic matter production by a factor of 2-4 (eutrophication). This has led to detrimental oxygen depletion and hydrogen sulphide production in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. Model simulations based on the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) indicate that current eutrophication and thus extension of oxygen-depleted areas cannot be reversed within the next hundred years by the proposed nutrient reduction measures. Another environmental problem is related to decreasing pH (acidification) that is caused by dissolution of the rising atmospheric CO 2 . Estimates indicate a decrease in pH by about 0.15 during the last 1-2 centuries, and continuation of this trend may have serious ecological consequences. However, the concurrent increase in the alkalinity of the Baltic Sea may have significantly counteracted acidification.

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“…Natural fertilisers were used in agriculture, and horses were intensively used for transportation in urban and rural areas. Sewage systems were constructed to prevent outbreaks of cholera and other diseases in the cities but sewage treatment was absent or very ineffective in many areas until after the Second World War [7].While human activity *Address correspondence to this author at the Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden E-mail: andreas.bryhn@geo.uu.se contributed to large nutrient inputs already one century ago, the effects from this activity did not become apparent in the open sea until the late 1960s when cyanobacterial blooms became a recurring nuisance [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Total Phosphorus Loadings and Concentrations Regarding Surface Waters of the Baltic Sea, 1968-2007

Bryhn

2010

TOOCEAJ

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Abstract:The Baltic Sea, a large estuarine sea in northern Europe, has for many decades displayed obvious signs of anthropogenic eutrophication. This study relates long-term trends in total phosphorus (TP) loadings and TP concentrations in surface waters regarding five major sub-basins of the Baltic Sea; the Bothnian Bay, the Bothnian Sea, the Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The longest time series ever published on these variables was developed and used for this purpose. TP loadings to these waters have decreased greatly and significantly since the 1980s. However, TP concentrations have only decreased slightly in one of the sub-basins while concentrations have increased in the other four basins. Four possible hypotheses about the weak connection between TP loadings and concentrations are 1) increasing TP concentration is a delayed effect from many decades of intensive TP loading, 2) fewer saline inflows of high intensity have decreased sedimentation rates and increased TP concentrations, 3) fewer oxygen-rich saline inflows of high intensity have increased TP diffusion from deep sediments to the whole water column and 4) less ice in the winter has increased the erosion and resuspension of shallow sediments and increased TP concentrations.

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The Baltic Sea a century ago — a reconstruction from model simulations, verified by observations

Cited by 112 publications

References 42 publications

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Environmental Impacts—Marine Biogeochemistry

Trends in Total Phosphorus Loadings and Concentrations Regarding Surface Waters of the Baltic Sea, 1968-2007

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