The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism

Doğru, Tarik; Işık, Cem; Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan

doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2019.01.014

Cited by 116 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Tourism impacts household income and governmental revenue via multiplier effects and improvements in the balance of payments (Chou 2013). Effectively, according to Dogru et al (2019), tourism, besides contributing to economic growth, is capable of correcting a nation's deficit in the balance of payments. Equally, tourism is recognized as being interrelated with most of the productive branches as tourist expenditure produces economic spillover into the different sectors linked to the tourism sector of a destination (Acerenza 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another variable closely related to tourism demand growth is the exchange rate, as depreciation in the national currency results in less expensive tourist products, which attracts international tourists, although outbound tourism could be reduced (Dogru et al 2019), for outbound tourism behaves as a form of import (Seetaram 2010). Concordantly, in the Mexican case, Sánchez and Cruz (2016) have found, using the nominal exchange rate peso-American dollar, that international visitors positively respond to depreciation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unemployment and Growth in the Tourism Sector in Mexico: Revisiting the Growth-Rate Version of Okun’s Law

López

2019

Economies

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In this paper, we analyze, by means of the difference version of Okun’s law, the relationship between tourism sector growth and unemployment in Mexico during the period 2000Q2–2018Q4. The results show that tourism growth is a palliative for unemployment, whereas unemployment reduces the growth of the tourism sector. The results also show that the relationship between the mentioned variables becomes stronger during an economic crisis and weaker during expansion periods.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unemployment and Growth in the Tourism Sector in Mexico: Revisiting the Growth-Rate Version of Okun’s Law

López

2019

Economies

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“…It can be understood that there has been a larger influence on international trade from other factors compared to one of the key products of the world. The trade balance is one of the variables that the exchange rate can affect (Dogru, Isik, & Sirakaya-Turk, 2019;Doukas & Lifland, 1994;Ghosh, 2010;McKinnon, 1990;Zuhroh & Kaluge, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The price of one commodity is not enough to affect Indonesia's exchange rate. However, the export and import positions in the aggregate are able to explain the condition of the IDR exchange rate and vice versa (Dogru et al, 2019;Doukas & Lifland, 1994;Ghosh, 2010;McKinnon, 1990;Zuhroh & Kaluge, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the Granger Causality test we have proved that there is independence (no causality) between IDR exchange rate and the world CPO price. The absence of causality between the two variables indicates the influence of international trade (the trade balance) which is stronger and able to explain the exchange rate (Dogru et al, 2019;Doukas & Lifland, 1994;Ghosh, 2010;McKinnon, 1990;Zuhroh & Kaluge, 2007). Therefore, it is necessary to increase the value-added (Pandya, 2016) in Indonesia's processing of CPOs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The nexus between Indonesia’s exchange rate and the world crude palm oil price

Lee

Huruta

2019

IER

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International trade plays a major role in increasing the output of each country. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is one of Indonesia's major export commodities. Facts show over the past two decades, CPO has become a fast-growing product. However, there are obstacles from one of Indonesia's CPO importers, namely the European Union. The aim of this study is to explore the nexus between the exchange rate and the world price of CPOs. Research Design & Methods: This study uses both the exchange rate of Indonesia and the price data of the world CPO from 1981-2017 as secondary. Granger Causality was used to explain the nexus between the exchange rate and the world price of CPOs. Findings: The results of the Granger Causality showed there was no causality between the exchange rate and the price of the world CPO. The lack of causality between the two variables suggests the trade balance's position is stronger and able to explain the exchange rate. Contribution & Value Added: This study indicated that the IDR exchange rate is more sensitive to trade balance rather than the world CPO price. Moreover, It is necessary to refined palm oil products to increase the contribution of the non-oil sector in Indonesia. In addition, the Indonesian government needs to be aware of the European Union's raised barriers to world trade. It means that Indonesia can make a positive campaign about the advantages of palm oil production. Article type: research paper

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Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock

Jiang

Tian

et al. 2020

Int. J Fin Econ

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This paper investigates how geopolitical risk (GPR) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impact the Chinese tourism stock return using the quantileon-quantile method and causality-in-quantiles approach. Compared to the conventional linear regression model and the quantile regression, the quantileon-quantile method can capture more factors of uncertainty and provide more accurate and detailed empirical results. Besides, we consider the upper quantile and lower quantile of stock return as the tourism peak season and offseason respectively. Overall, the empirical results indicate GPR exerts a lasting negative effect on tourism stock return and that the negative effect of GPR at low quantile is more significant than that at high quantile. Besides, the Chinese categorical EPU influences both negatively and positively the stock returns at different distribution levels. And during tourist off-season, the asymmetric phenomena between GPR, EPU and stock return are more obvious at lower quantiles and upper quantiles.

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The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism

Cited by 116 publications

References 42 publications

Unemployment and Growth in the Tourism Sector in Mexico: Revisiting the Growth-Rate Version of Okun’s Law

Unemployment and Growth in the Tourism Sector in Mexico: Revisiting the Growth-Rate Version of Okun’s Law

The nexus between Indonesia’s exchange rate and the world crude palm oil price

Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock

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