The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius

Abstract

A volcanic catastrophe even more devastating than the famous anno Domini 79 Pompeii eruption occurred during the Old Bronze Age at Vesuvius. The 3780-yr-B.P. Avellino plinian eruption produced an early violent pumice fallout and a late pyroclastic surge sequence that covered the volcano surroundings as far as 25 km away, burying land and villages. Here we present the reconstruction of this prehistoric catastrophe and its impact on the Bronze Age culture in Campania, drawn from an interdisciplinary volcanological and archaeoanthropological study. Evidence shows that a sudden, en masse evacuation of thousands of people occurred at the beginning of the eruption, before the last destructive plinian column collapse. Most of the fugitives likely survived, but the desertification of the total habitat due to the huge eruption size caused a social-demographic collapse and the abandonment of the entire area for centuries. Because an event of this scale is capable of devastating a broad territory that includes the present metropolitan district of Naples, it should be considered as a reference for the worst eruptive scenario at Vesuvius.archeoanthropology ͉ Bronze Age ͉ volcanic catastrophe ͉ volcanology P linian eruptions are highly destructive volcanic events that produce severe and long-lasting damage over thousands of squared kilometers of the territory surrounding volcanoes (1-4). Studies of the occurrence of plinian eruptions in densely populated areas reveal that most of the people who lived in the affected zones survived (3, 5). However, because of the habitat devastation and their inability to rehabilitate their homeland (5-7), many victims suffer social-economic crises and health status decline (3,5,8). Strong eruption precursors commonly alert the people days to months before the cataclysmic event; in the early phases of a plinian eruption, the slow escalation of the phenomena could allow them to escape from the volcano and flee beyond the lapilli fallout zone. The success of the evacuation depends mainly on its timeliness, because the early phase of a plinian eruption may not be lethal, even close to the volcano (2). Nevertheless, in most cases, the emplacement of billions of cubic meters of ash and lapilli in the form of a continuous blanket from decimeters to meters thick retards or prevents the recovery of the social-economical structure for decades to centuries, even tens of kilometers away from the vent (3, 9, 10).An extraordinary case that sheds light on such catastrophic consequences of an eruption is the Bronze Age Avellino plinian event at Vesuvius, dated by 14 C to Ϸ3780 yr B.P. (2, 10, 11). The eruption produced Ϸ4 km 3 of phonolitic ash and lapilli, a large subaqueous debris-flow avalanch in the gulf of Naples (12), and was even reported to have caused a global climatic disturbance (13). This event started with a moderate-sized explosive phase followed by a plinian column that in a few hours rose to 36 km in the stratosphere and, driven by westerly winds, produced a lapilli fallout covering thousands...

The psychology and rationality of decisions from experience

“…Although the loss of life and property was less extensive in the Bronze Age eruption than in the eruption of AD 79, owing to the sparser settlements, researchers recently discovered evidence of a massive exodus in the form of a huge number of human and animal footprints, pressed into the ash bed and all leading away from the volcano (Mastrolorenzo et al 2006).…”

How Representations of Knowledge Shape Actions

“…As recent volcanological and archaeoanthropological studies have revealed, an earlier, Bronze Age eruption (around 3780 BC) covered the surrounding area as far as 25 km away, burying land and villages, causing a global climatic disturbance and the abandonment of the entire area for centuries. The loss of life and property was less extensive in the Bronze Age cataclysm than in the eruption of AD 79, but researchers recently discovered evidence of a mass exodus: a huge number of human and animal footprints pressed into the ash bed and all leading away from the volcano (Mastrolorenzo, Petrone, Pappalardo, & Sheridan, 2006 ).…”

“…In fact, the periphery of Mount Vesuvius, which includes a signifi cant chunk of the Naples metropolitan area, is among the most populated of any active volcano (Bruni, 2003 ). According to simulations by Mastrolorenzo et al ( 2006 ), an eruption comparable in magnitude to the Bronze Age eruption would cause total devastation and mortality within a radius of at least 12 km (7½ miles). In addition, great quantities of fi ne ash in more distant zones might cause severe respiratory-tract injuries and fatalities due to acute asphyxia.…”

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“…The vulnerability of contemporary Europe, for instance, to extreme events such as a major volcanic eruption are therefore not 'matters of fact' but 'matters of concerns' (Stewart and Lewis 2017). What archaeology can add is immediacy and intimacy to specific volcanic hazard forecast scenarios (e.g., Mastrolorenzo et al 2006;Schmidt et al 2011;Sonnek et al 2017) by focusing on both the vulnerability and the resilience of past communities. People relate readily to the past of the places they live, and indeed draw much of their identity from historical and archaeological narratives (Sommer 2000).…”