Objective
To examined whether the long-term resting heart rate (RHR) pattern can predict the risk of having arterial stiffness in a large ongoing cohort.
Approach and Results
This community-based cohort included 12,554 participants in the Kailun study, free of myocardial infraction, stroke, arrhythmia, and cancer. We used latent mixture modeling to identify RHR trajectories in 2006, 2008 and 2010. We used multivariate linear regression model to examine the association between RHR trajectory patterns and the risk of having arterial stiffness, which was assessed by brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) in 2010–2016. We adjusted for possible confounding factors, including social economic status, lifestyle factors, use of medications, co-morbidities, serum concentrations of lipids, glucose and high-sensitive C-reactive proteins. We identified five distinct RHR trajectory patterns based on their 2006 status and pattern of change during 2006–2010 (low-stable, moderate-stable, moderate-increasing, elevated-decreasing, and elevated-stable). We found that individuals with elevated-stable RHR trajectory pattern had the highest bpPWV value and individuals with the low-stable RHR trajectory pattern had the lowest value (adjusted mean difference = 157 cm/s, P<0.001). Adjusted odds ratio for risk of having arterial stiffness (bpPWV≥1400 cm/s) was 4.14 (95% confidence interval: 2.61–6.57) relative to these two extreme categories. Consistently, a higher average RHR, a higher annual RHR increase rate and a higher RHR variability were all associated with a higher risk of having arterial stiffness.
Conclusion
Long-term RHR pattern is a strong predictor of having arterial stiffness.