The assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to drought in Southern Romania (Oltenia Plain)

Dumitrașcu, Monica; Mocanu, Irena; Mitrică, Bianca; Dragotă, Carmen-Sofia; Grigorescu, Ines; Dumitrică, Cristina

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.049

Cited by 55 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The expansion of dry areas has been facilitated by the same factors as in Oltenia Plain (the destruction and abandonment of irrigation systems, deforestation, excessive land fragmentation and inadequate farming practices) [47]. However, according to the values of the aridity index, climatic conditions are more severe in this region than in the other regions, which enhance the risk of agricultural damage [44,48].…”

Section: Study Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Temporal Analysis and Trends of the Drought Based on MODIS Data in Agricultural Areas, Romania

et al. 2020

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The aim of this study is to analyze the performance of the Drought Severity Index (DSI) in Romania and its validation based on other data sources (meteorological data, soil moisture content (SMC), agricultural production). Also, it is to assess the drought based on a multi-temporal analysis and trends of the DSI obtained from Terra MODIS satellite images. DSI is a standardized product based on evapotranspiration (ET) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), highlighting the differences over a certain period of time compared to the average. The study areas are located in Romania: three important agricultural lands (Oltenia Plain, Baragan Plain and Banat Plain), which have different environmental characteristics. MODIS products have been used over a period of 19 years (2001–2019) during the vegetation season of the agricultural crops (April–September). The results point out that those agricultural areas from the Baragan Plain and Oltenia Plain were more affected by drought than those from Banat Plain, especially in the years 2002, 2007 and 2012. Also, the drought intensity and the agricultural surfaces affected by drought decreased in the first part of the vegetation season (March–May) and increased in the last part (August–September) in all three study areas analyzed. All these results are confirmed by those of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA) indices.

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Section: Study Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Temporal Analysis and Trends of the Drought Based on MODIS Data in Agricultural Areas, Romania

et al. 2020

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“…Accordingly, our results suggest that expected forest-cover change can compromise carbon storage, which can have important environmental implications. On the one hand, this can accentuate the effects of climate variability and change and therefore, lead to the increase of socio-economic vulnerability to drought in the area [97], given that these regions integrate most of the largest towns in Romania and the highest population density (approximatively 132 inhabitants/km 2 ) [98]. On the other hand, these changes can increase the risk of drought and desertification having an impact on the agricultural systems [99,100] and groundwater processes [58].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Future Changes in Aboveground Forest Carbon Stock in Romania. A Prediction Based on Forest-Cover Pattern Scenario

Dumitrașcu

Kucsicsa

Dumitrică

et al. 2020

Forests

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The aboveground forest biomass plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and is considered a large and constant carbon reservoir. Hence, exploring the future potential changes in forest-cover pattern can help to estimate the trend of forest biomass and therefore, carbon stock in a certain area. As a result, the present paper attempts to model the potential changes in aboveground forest carbon stock based on the forest-cover pattern scenario simulated for 2050. Specifically, the resulting aboveground forest biomass, estimated for 2015 using the allometric equation based on diameter at breast height and the estimated forest density, was used as baseline data in the present approach. These spatial data were integrated into the forest-cover pattern scenario, predicted by using a spatially explicit model, i.e., the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S), in order to estimate the potential variation of aboveground forest carbon stock. Our results suggest an overall increase by approximately 4% in the aboveground forest carbon stock until 2050 in Romania. However, important differences in the forest-cover pattern change were predicted on the regional scale, thus highlighting that the rates of carbon accumulation will change significantly in large areas. This study may increase the knowledge of aboveground forest biomass and the future trend of carbon stock in the European countries. Furthermore, due to their predictive character, the results may provide a background for further studies, in order to investigate the potential ecological, socio-economic and forest management responses to the changes in the aboveground forest carbon stock. However, in view of the uncertainties associated with the data accuracy and methodology used, it is presumed that the results include several spatial errors related to the estimation of aboveground forest biomass and simulation of future forest-cover pattern change and therefore, represent an uncertainty for the practical management of applications and decisions.

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“…The interdisciplinary character of social risks and their implications for the quality of life of contemporary societies are reflected in various conceptual and methodological approaches specific to the natural sciences and social sciences. Recent scientific studies on social risks enhance important information about the methodologies used in assessing the potential probability for losses, specific to each domain, by using and correlating some representative indicators (Callander, Deborah 2018;Gonzáles et al 2017;Dumitrașcu et al 2017;Musolino et al 2017).…”

Section: Methodological Aspectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…illiteracy rate/100 inhabitants, disabled persons, persons without acces to different basic services, average income per household, number of salaried persons, unemployment rate, number of hospitals, number of physicians/1,000 inhabitants), or indices developed within some scientific studies and projects, such as: Human Development Index (HDI -UNDP, 1993), Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI, 2003), Deprivation Index (Zamfir 2015), Social Vulnerability Index (SVI, 2016). In the recent years, many studies have focused on evaluating the vulnerability of population and of human settlements to specific hazard types: index of socio-economic vulnerability to drought (Dumitrașcu et al 2017), index of social vulnerability to floods (Oulahen et al 2015;Roder et al 2017), socio-economic vulnerability index to landslide (Park et al 2016), social vulnerability index to environmental hazards (Cutter et al 2003). For the adaptation capacity, the relevant indicators considered refer to access to education, to information and financial resources, social protection systems, sanitary services, the existence of economic alternatives, the infrastructure quality, technological development, etc.…”

Section: Methodological Aspectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this context, the International Social Sciences Council (ISSC) promotes the efficient involvement of the social sciences in approaching environmental problems and sustainable development, by identifying efficient solutions to the arising challenge (ISSC Report, 2016), strictly connected to sustainable development goals (SDGs, 2015). In order to understand the socio-economic factors that limit the adaptation of local communities to natural disasters, one has to make detailed social and economic analyses based on using and matching some representative indicators (Dumitrașcu et al 2017;Gonzáles et al 2017;Musolino et al 2017;Callander, Deborah 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The concept of social risk: A geographical approach

Lupu

2019

Quaestiones Geographicae

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Social risk is an interdisciplinary concept used with various meanings in the social and in the natural sciences. The article presents some of the social insights into this concept, particularly in connection with the global environmental research project and with geography. The special dimension of social risks, as well as some current methodological aspects regarding models and the main indicators used in the multidimensional assessment of social risks are analysed at local, regional and national levels. Of special interest is the link between social risks and a series of key-concepts, such as: hazard, impact, social vulnerability, resilience, adaptive capacity.

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The assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to drought in Southern Romania (Oltenia Plain)

Cited by 55 publications

References 38 publications

Multi-Temporal Analysis and Trends of the Drought Based on MODIS Data in Agricultural Areas, Romania

Multi-Temporal Analysis and Trends of the Drought Based on MODIS Data in Agricultural Areas, Romania

Estimation of Future Changes in Aboveground Forest Carbon Stock in Romania. A Prediction Based on Forest-Cover Pattern Scenario

The concept of social risk: A geographical approach

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