The assessment of potential geotechnical hazards associated with mountain permafrost in a warming global climate

Harris, Charles; Davies, M. C. R.; Etzelmüller, Bernd

doi:10.1002/ppp.376

Cited by 158 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 25 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The range of potential effects of climate change identified for this and other permafrost regions include warming of ground temperatures at the surface and at depth (IPCC, 2007;ACIA, 2005), increasing active layer thickness (Haeberli et al, 1993;Burn and Zhang, 2010;SWIPA, 2012;Bonnaventure and Lamoureux, 2013), basal thaw resulting in permafrost thinning (Harris et al, 2001;Woo et al, 2008), runoff changes (Woo et al, 2008), and the development of thermokarst features (Harris et al, 2001;Woo et al, 2008). Natural hazards associated with permafrost degradation (Kääb, 2008) may also develop as climate change will affect permafrost slopes, possibly generating or enhancing mass movements such as creeprelated processes, rockslides, rock falls, mudslides, and active layer detachment failures (Evans and Clague, 1994;Harris et al,2001;Lewkowicz and Harris, 2005;Dorren, 2003;Lipovsky et al, 2006;Haeberli et al, 2006;Kääb, 2008).…”

Section: P P Bonnaventure and A G Lewkowicz: Impacts Of Mean Annumentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Bonnaventure

Lewkowicz

2013

The Cryosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Air temperature changes were applied to a regional model of permafrost probability under equilibrium conditions for an area of nearly 0.5 × 10 6 km 2 in the southern Yukon and northwestern British Columbia, Canada. Associated environmental changes, including snow cover and vegetation, were not considered in the modelling. Permafrost extent increases from 58 % of the area (present day: 1971-2000) to 76 % under a −1 K cooling scenario, whereas warming scenarios decrease the percentage of permafrost area exponentially to 38 % (+ 1 K), 24 % (+ 2 K), 17% (+ 3 K), 12 % (+ 4 K) and 9 % (+ 5 K) of the area. The morphology of permafrost gain/loss under these scenarios is controlled by the surface lapse rate (SLR, i.e. air temperature elevation gradient), which varies across the region below treeline. Areas that are maritime exhibit SLRs characteristically similar above and below treeline resulting in low probabilities of permafrost in valley bottoms. When warming scenarios are applied, a loss front moves to upper elevations (simple unidirectional spatial loss). Areas where SLRs are gently negative below treeline and normal above treeline exhibit a loss front moving up-mountain at different rates according to two separate SLRs (complex unidirectional spatial loss). Areas that display high continentally exhibit bidirectional spatial loss in which the loss front moves up-mountain above treeline and down-mountain below treeline. The parts of the region most affected by changes in MAAT (mean annual air temperature) have SLRs close to 0 K km −1 and extensive discontinuous permafrost, whereas the least sensitive in terms of areal loss are sites above the treeline where permafrost presence is strongly elevation dependent.

show abstract

Section: P P Bonnaventure and A G Lewkowicz: Impacts Of Mean Annumentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Bonnaventure

Lewkowicz

2013

The Cryosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…21: 198-207 (2010) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/ppp.688 thaw (e.g. Nelson et al, 2001), resulting in an increase in slope instability (Harris et al, 2001). These changes in permafrost temperatures and in the depth of seasonal freezing/thawing are indicators of changes in climate, and also influence surface and subsurface hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the international polar year

Zhao

Marchenko

et al. 2010

Permafrost & Periglacial

297

185

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Permafrost in Central Asian is present in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, the Tien Shan Mountain regions in China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, the Pamirs in Tajikistan, and in Mongolia. Monitoring of the ground thermal regime in these regions over the past several decades has shown that the permafrost has been undergoing significant changes caused by climate warming and increasing human activities.

show abstract

“…Surface-based geophysical methods represent a costeffective approach for permafrost characterization (Harris et al, 2001). The application of geophysical methods has a long tradition in permafrost studies (Akimov et al, 1973;Barnes, 1965;Ferrians and Hobson, 1973;Scott et al, 1990).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

P-wave velocity changes in freezing hard low-porosity rocks: a laboratory-based time-average model

Draebing

Krautblatter

2012

The Cryosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. P-wave refraction seismics is a key method in permafrost research but its applicability to low-porosity rocks, which constitute alpine rock walls, has been denied in prior studies. These studies explain p-wave velocity changes in freezing rocks exclusively due to changing velocities of pore infill, i.e. water, air and ice. In existing models, no significant velocity increase is expected for low-porosity bedrock. We postulate, that mixing laws apply for high-porosity rocks, but freezing in confined space in low-porosity bedrock also alters physical rock matrix properties. In the laboratory, we measured p-wave velocities of 22 decimetre-large lowporosity (< 10 %) metamorphic, magmatic and sedimentary rock samples from permafrost sites with a natural texture (> 100 micro-fissures) from 25 • C to −15 • C in 0.3 • C increments close to the freezing point. When freezing, pwave velocity increases by 11-166 % perpendicular to cleavage/bedding and equivalent to a matrix velocity increase from 11-200 % coincident to an anisotropy decrease in most samples. The expansion of rigid bedrock upon freezing is restricted and ice pressure will increase matrix velocity and decrease anisotropy while changing velocities of the pore infill are insignificant. Here, we present a modified Timur's twophase-equation implementing changes in matrix velocity dependent on lithology and demonstrate the general applicability of refraction seismics to differentiate frozen and unfrozen low-porosity bedrock.

show abstract

The assessment of potential geotechnical hazards associated with mountain permafrost in a warming global climate

Cited by 158 publications

References 25 publications

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the international polar year

P-wave velocity changes in freezing hard low-porosity rocks: a laboratory-based time-average model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About