The Agricultural Potential of Northwestern Canada and Alaska and the Impact of Climatic Change

Abstract

Climate change studies have indicated the potential for increased drought in the southern Canadian prairies, and with this the potential exists for a northward shift in agricultural production areas. In order to assess the potential for agriculture, the arable soils of northwestern Canada (approximately north and West of 55"N latitude and 1 10°W longitude) and Alaska were sumrnarized. The study area was divided into several sub-regions or major land resource areas (MLRA) within which the soils with potential for agricultural use were identified through existing soil surveys. These surveys indicate an area of greater than 57 M hectares (Ha) of potentially arable land, which could be used for either annual cropping or grazing on perennial forages, according to the Canada Land Inventory class 1-5 criteria. The climatic limitations for each MLRA were assessed separately through the use of Climate Classification Software. These limitations were then applied to the 57 M Ha of potentially arable land identified earlier, with the result that the area was rated as overall class 5 climate, limited primarily by heat, and the size of the area was reduced to 39.2 M Ha. The impact of a 2 X COz changed climate on this area was then assessed by the use of climatic data generated with the Canadian Climate Centre, Global Circulation Model. These data show a much improved climatic capability for agriculture, being substantially warmer and somewhat drier. The overall climate class increased to a rating of 3, and 55.3 M Ha of arable land were shown to be potentially available in the study area.

Estimating Detection Probabilities of Waterfowl Broods From Ground‐Based Surveys

“…Molting/ staging habitat quality could indirectly affect reproductive success of Barrow's Goldeneyes six months later. Conserving these habitats may be particularly important considering the high rate of agricultural expansion within the BTZ (Mills 1994;Hobson et al 2002) and the paucity of protected areas within this region.…”

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

“…In fact, the emerging challenges of future decades include finding balance in the competition for land and raw materials for the food, forestry and energy sectors, e.g., devising solutions that ensure food and local rural development rights while maximising energy and climate mitigation needs. [LULUCF 4.5.1] In North America, drought may increase in continental interiors and production areas may shift northwards (Mills, 1994), especially for maize and soybean production (Brklacich et al, 1997). [WGII TAR 15.2.3.1] In Mexico, production losses may be dominated by droughts, as agro-ecological zones suitable for maize cultivation decrease (Conde et al, 1997 Water resources are a key vulnerability in Africa for household, agricultural and industrial uses.…”

Wetlands in Canada's western boreal forest: Agents of Change

“…Some models of climatic change forecast these zones to slowly shift northward due to warming (Hogg and Hurdle 1995). Under one warming scenario, Mills (1994) predicted that up to 16 million ha of Canadian land would become suitable for crop production, thereby linking climate change effects to those from agriculture.…”