The Adriatic Sea and Coast modelling suite: Evaluation of the meteotsunami forecast component

Denamiel, Cléa; Šepić, Jadranka; Ivanković, Damir; Vilibić, Ivica

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.02.003

Cited by 65 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…25 June 2014: for Vela Luka, Rijeka dubrovačka, Vrboska, and Stari Grad, which all have been reported to be flooded (Šepić et al, 2016). This is in accordance with the forecasted deterministic ADCIRC maximum In summary, for the five studied historical events, the surrogate model of meteotsunami maximum elevation is capable of forecasting the meteotsunami hazard in the areas that were flooded, which was not always the case of the deterministic ADCIRC model (Denamiel et al, 2019). Unfortunately, for many events, it also predicts flooding in areas where no meteotsunami impact was reported.…”

Section: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Oceanssupporting

confidence: 74%

“…The first evaluation of the CMeEWS is performed against well-recorded events that took place, before the early warning system became operational, at five locations of interest: Vela Luka, Rijeka dubrovačka, Stari Grad, Vrboska, and Ston (Figure 1). In 2014, two strong events happened at the end of June (Šepić et al, 2016), (Denamiel et al, 2019). For five of these events, the deterministic results of the AdriSC meteotsunami forecast component have already been evaluated against a set of 48 air pressure sensors and 19 tide gauges (Denamiel et al, 2019).…”

Section: Evaluation Against Historical Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stochastic Surrogate Model for Meteotsunami Early Warning System in the Eastern Adriatic Sea

et al. 2019

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The meteotsunami early warning system prototype using stochastic surrogate approach and running operationally in the eastern Adriatic Sea is presented. First, the atmospheric internal gravity waves (IGWs) driving the meteotsunamis are either forecasted with state-of-the-art deterministic models at least a day in advance or detected through measurements at least 2 hr before the meteotsunami reaches sensitive locations. The extreme sea-level hazard forecast at endangered locations is then derived with an innovative stochastic surrogate model-implemented with generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) method and synthetic IGWs forcing a barotropic ocean model-used with the input parameters extracted from deterministic model results and/or measurements. The evaluation of the system, both against five historical events and for all the detected potential meteotsunamis since late 2018 when the early warning system prototype became operational, reveals that the meteotsunami hazard is conservatively assessed but often overestimated at some locations. Despite some needed improvements and developments, this study demonstrates that gPCE-based methods can be used for atmospherically driven extreme sea-level hazard assessment and in geosciences in wide.Plain Language Summary Atmospherically driven extreme sea-level events are one of the major threats to people and assets in the coastal regions. Assessing the hazard associated with such events together with uncertainty quantification in a precise and timely manner is thus of primary importance in modern societies. In this study, an early warning system for the eastern Adriatic meteotsunamis, destructive long waves with periods from few minutes up to an hour generated by traveling atmospheric disturbances, is presented and evaluated. The system is based on state-of-the-art deterministic atmospheric and ocean models as well as an innovative statistical model developed to forecast the meteotsunami hazard. The evaluation reveals that the meteotsunami hazard is conservatively assessed but often overestimated. This study demonstrates that the presented methodology can be used for extreme sea-level hazard assessment and in general for hazard studies in geosciences.

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Section: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Oceanssupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Evaluation Against Historical Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic Surrogate Model for Meteotsunami Early Warning System in the Eastern Adriatic Sea

et al. 2019

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“…In this work, we perform sensitivity experiments selecting a subset of cu, mp, ra and pbl parameterizations that are suited for high-resolution simulations and that have been used in previous meteotsunamis studies using high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric models (Belušić et al 2007;Šepić et al 2009;Tanaka 2010;Orlić et al 2010;Renault et al 2011;Horvath and Vilibić 2014;Horvath et al 2018;Denamiel et al 2019). The radt parameter is also considered here.…”

Section: Wrf Sensitivity Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other systems were developed more recently. Denamiel et al (2019) presented the Adriatic Sea and Coast modeling suite, including a coupled WRF-ROMS configuration, which then forces the barotropic unstructured model ADCIRC. The model was shown to be able to capture atmospheric disturbances, but with a misrepresentation of the timing and details of the perturbations in turn affecting the magnitude of the modeled meteotsunamis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Small-scale pressure disturbances related to squall lines, gravity waves or convective nucleus are at the origin of meteotsunamis (Monserrat et al 1991Jansà et al 2007;Belušić et al 2007;Šepić et al 2009;Horvath et al 2018). While these processes can be theoretically generated in state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric models with sufficiently high resolution, the uncertainties associated with the resulting pressure signals are still generally large, especially in terms of the detailed location and timing of the small-scale processes (Horvath and Vilibić 2014;Belušić et al 2007;Belušić and Mahović 2009;Denamiel et al 2019). Moreover, it can be expected that due to the nonlinear and chaotic nature of the atmosphere, small differences in initial conditions or model parameters yield different representations of these disturbances and as a consequence different magnitudes of the modeled meteotsunamis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the potential of ensemble forecasting for the prediction of meteotsunamis in the Balearic Islands: sensitivity to atmospheric model parameterizations

et al. 2020

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This study investigates the potential of ensemble forecasting using full realistic high-resolution nested atmosphere-ocean models for the prediction of meteotsunamis in Ciutadella (Menorca, Spain). The sensitivity of model results to the parameterizations of the atmospheric model is assessed considering the ten most significant recent meteotsunami events for which observations are available. Different schemes adapted to high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used for the representation of cumulus, microphysics, planetary boundary layer and longwave and shortwave radiations. Results indicate a large spread of the ensemble simulations in terms of the final magnitude of the meteotsunamis. While the modeling system is shown to be able to realistically trigger tsunamigenic atmospheric disturbances in more than 90% of the situations, the small-scale characteristics of these disturbances are significantly modified with the change of parameterizations, leading to significant differences in the magnitude of the simulated sea-level response. No preferred set of parameterizations can be identified that leads to either the largest or the most realistic magnitudes in the majority of situations. Instead, the performance of a given set of parameterizations is found to change with the meteotsunami event under consideration. Importantly, the observed magnitude of the extreme sea-level oscillations lies within the range of a nine-member ensemble in 70% of the cases. This ensemble approach would then allow to generate a realistic range of possibilities in the majority of events, thus improving the realism of meteotsunami predictions compared to single deterministic forecasts.

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Destructive potential of planetary meteotsunami waves beyond the Hunga volcano eruption (Tonga)

Denamiel

Vasylkevych

Žagar

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Worldwide tsunamis generated by atmospheric waves -or planetary meteotsunami waves -are extremely rare events occurring during supervolcano explosions or asteroid impacts. Recently, such waves have been globally recorded after the Hunga volcano eruption (Tonga) but did not pose any serious danger to the coastal communities. However, this study highlights that the mostly ignored destructive potential of planetary meteotsunami waves can be compared to the well-studied tsunami hazards. Through simple numerical experiments we indeed prove that meteotsunami surges above 1.00 m can be generated along more than 7 % of the world coastlines by atmospheric waves either more intense or slower than during the Hunga event. Consequently, the global meteotsunami hazards should now be properly assessed to prepare for the next big volcanic eruption or asteroid impact.

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The Adriatic Sea and Coast modelling suite: Evaluation of the meteotsunami forecast component

Cited by 65 publications

References 74 publications

Stochastic Surrogate Model for Meteotsunami Early Warning System in the Eastern Adriatic Sea

Stochastic Surrogate Model for Meteotsunami Early Warning System in the Eastern Adriatic Sea

On the potential of ensemble forecasting for the prediction of meteotsunamis in the Balearic Islands: sensitivity to atmospheric model parameterizations

Destructive potential of planetary meteotsunami waves beyond the Hunga volcano eruption (Tonga)

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