The added value of ultrasound imaging biomarkers to clinicopathological factors for the prediction of high-risk Oncotype DX recurrence scores in patients with breast cancer

Abstract

Background The Oncotype DX (ODX) recurrence score (RS), a 21-gene assay, has been proven to recognize patients at high risk of recurrence (RS ≥26) who would benefit from chemotherapy. However, it has limited availability and high costs. Our study thus aimed to identify ultrasound (US) imaging biomarkers and develop a prediction model for identifying patients with a high ODX RS. Methods In this retrospective study, consecutive patients with T1–3N0–1M0 breast cancer who were hormone receptor positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) negative who had an available ODX RS were reviewed. Patients treated from May 2012 and December 2015 were placed into a training cohort, and those treated from January 2016 to January 2017 were placed in a validation cohort. Clinicopathologic data were collected, and preoperative US scans were analyzed. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent predictors for a high-risk of breast cancer in the training cohort, and a nomogram was developed and evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results A total of 363 patients were in the training cohort and 160 in the validation cohort, with the proportion with a high RS (RS 26–100) being 14% and 13.1%, respectively. Echogenic halo, enhanced posterior echo, low level of progesterone receptor (PR), and high Ki-67 index were identified as independent risk factors for high RS (all P values <0.05). The nomogram was constructed based on the combined model, which showed a better discrimination ability than did the clinicopathological model [combined model: AUC =0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93–0.97; clinicopathological model: AUC =0.89, 95% CI: 0.86–0.92; P=0.001] and greater clinical benefit according to DCA. Furthermore, the nomogram was found to be effective in the validation cohort (AUC =0.90, 95% CI: 0.84–0.94), especially in patients with stage T1N0M0 disease (AUC =0.91, 95% CI: 0.84–0.95). Conclusions US features may serve as valuable imaging biomarkers for the prediction of high recurrence risk in patients with T1–3N0–1M0 breast cancer and hormone receptor (HR)-positive and HER2-negative status. A nomogram incorporating PR status, Ki-67 index, and US imaging biomarkers showed a good discrimination ability in the early selection of patients at high risk of recurrence, especially in those with stage T1N0M0 disease.