The Absence of War in the U.S.-China Confrontation over Quemoy and Matsu in 1954-1955: Contingency, Luck, Deterrence?

Chang, Gordon H.; He, Dawei

doi:10.2307/2167064

Cited by 31 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…The non-use of nuclear weapons since 1945 is a defining feature of the nuclear age (Sagan 2004;Tannenwald 2007;Paul 2009;Walker 2010;Gavin 2015;Smetana 2019). It is expected that states would not use nuclear weapons in the same manner as "you would use a bullet or anything else," to quote President Dwight Eisenhower (Chang andDi 1993, 1519).…”

Section: Taboo or Something Else?mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Taboo and Its Rivals

Davis Cross

2023

International Cooperation Against All Odds

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While the international system today is one in which interstate war is largely considered a last resort and should only be embarked upon under legitimate circumstances (i.e., self-defense or a United Nations Security Council resolution), once war begins, this chapter argues that the non-use idea is still a strong barrier in its conduct. An ultrasocial approach suggests that it is likely that the non-use idea has become more entrenched than both the taboo (unthinking, gut response) and the tradition (path-dependence) because it is intricately tied to norms against war and in favor of peace. Societal belief in a new narrative that connected non-use of nuclear weapons to the achievement of peace in general and the human capacity to create a better future was crucial.

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Section: Taboo or Something Else?mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Taboo and Its Rivals

Davis Cross

2023

International Cooperation Against All Odds

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“…Fourteen million people died, indirectly or directly, as a result of the previous Cold War (Chamberlin 2018 ). On numerous occasions, the Cold War almost ended in nuclear holocaust (Chang and He 1993 ; Pelopidas 2017 ; Downing 2018 ). Statistical analysis indicates that Great Power war was as much avoided by chance as contrivance (Braumoeller 2019 ).…”

Section: Three Species Of Nationalism In the Contemporary Indo-pacificmentioning

confidence: 99%

Homogenizing nationalists, budding fascists, and truculent exceptionalists: the end of world order in the Indo-Pacific

McKinney

2021

Int Polit

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Building on Ernest Gellner’s theory of the nation-state and drawing on insights from John Lukacs and George Kennan, this article contends that the major powers of the contemporary Indo-Pacific are characterized by conflicting nationalisms. Homogenizing nationalism seeks to form China—a former multiethnic empire—into a unitary nation-state. Budding fascism endeavors to transform India—founded as a secular state—into a Hindu nation in which there is little place for the ‘other.’ And in the USA, truculent exceptionalism readily acknowledges that coexistence with China is no longer possible in the long run. All three powers have an alternative that they might embrace: toleration. But civility, in both domestic and international politics, is increasingly rare. The future of world order in the Indo-Pacific does not look bright.

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“…Yet, even when the Chinese communists scorned the Nationalists for embracing American support, Washington remained purposefully ambiguous about whether Jinmen and Matsu fell under the provisions of its security alliance with Taiwan. Dulles said that the American strategy was primarily about “deterrence through uncertainty” as keeping PRC leaders in the fog about US intentions was designed to induce self-restraint on their part (Chang and Di, 1993: 1511). The strategy clearly backfired, however, as this uncertainty emboldened the Chinese communists on 18 January 1955 to take the Dachens, another group of offshore islands under Nationalist control.…”

Section: China’s Dealing With Disputed Islands: Two Historical Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Spring of 1955, the region saw a massive increase in the US military presence. At this point, Eisenhower even believed an invasion of Taiwan was imminent, calling the Chinese communists “completely reckless, arrogant” (quoted in Chang and Di, 1993: 1514). Although neither side could have been interested in escalating the conflict, the crisis came very close to the brink of actual war.…”

Section: China’s Dealing With Disputed Islands: Two Historical Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overcoming the poverty of Western historical imagination: Alternative analogies for making sense of the South China Sea conflict

Kopper

Peragovics²

2018

European Journal of International Relations

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This article analyzes the use of historical analogies to interpret and explain foreign policy behavior, focusing on the South China Sea conflict. In reviewing coverage in the international English-language press, we find a range of historical analogies, from the conflict between Athens and Sparta to the 1938 Munich agreement, to interpret China’s strategy and motivations in the region. While analogies are powerful tools for interpreting international events, their use has dangers as they are often deployed to justify decisions rather than analyze options. This article has two goals. First, we argue that relying excessively on Western analogies for understanding China can be misleading; instead, we suggest visiting examples from China’s past that offer alternative readings of its current ambitions. Second, we suggest a way to overcome the deterministic application of historical analogies by not taking them individually, but rather taking them as sets of alternative scenarios. This way, they can provide important insights for generating critical debate and informing tactful diplomacy.

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The Absence of War in the U.S.-China Confrontation over Quemoy and Matsu in 1954-1955: Contingency, Luck, Deterrence?

Cited by 31 publications

References 0 publications

The Taboo and Its Rivals

The Taboo and Its Rivals

Homogenizing nationalists, budding fascists, and truculent exceptionalists: the end of world order in the Indo-Pacific

Overcoming the poverty of Western historical imagination: Alternative analogies for making sense of the South China Sea conflict

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