The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide, Washington, USA

Wartman, Joseph; Montgomery, David R.; Anderson, Scott; Keaton, Jeffrey R.; Benoît, Jean; Chapelle, John dela; Gilbert, Robert B.

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.10.022

Cited by 122 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Significantly, most landslide-related deaths occur on relatively flat land in the distal runout zone (D. Petley, personal communication, 2014), where human development is generally concentrated and high-velocity landslide impacts can still occur, often with little or no advance warning. The landslide that occurred near Oso, Washington, in March 2014, which travelled more than 1 km across the valley bottom and caused 43 fatalities in the community of Steelhead Haven (Keaton et al 2014;Iverson et al 2015;Hibert et al 2015;Wartman et al 2016), is a recent example of this widespread problem. In some cases, agricultural development on the flat land in the runout zone may also contribute to the mobility of landslides and exacerbate the consequences (e.g., Evans et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

2014 Canadian Geotechnical Colloquium: Landslide runout analysis — current practice and challenges

McDougall

2017

Can. Geotech. J.

181

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Flow-like landslides, such as debris flows and rock avalanches, travel at extremely rapid velocities and can impact large areas far from their source. When hazards like these are identified, runout analyses are often needed to delineate potential inundation areas, estimate risks, and design mitigation structures. A variety of tools and methods have been developed for these purposes, ranging from simple empirical-statistical correlations to advanced three-dimensional computer models. This paper provides an overview of the tools and methods that are currently available and discusses some of the main challenges that are currently being addressed by researchers, including the need for better guidance in the selection of model input parameter values, the challenge of translating model results into vulnerability estimates, the problem with too much initial spreading in the simulation of certain types of landslides, the challenge of accounting for sudden channel obstructions in the simulation of debris flows, and the sensitivity of models to topographic resolution and filtering methods.Key words: landslides, runout analysis, modelling, risk assessment.Résumé : Les coulées, comme les glissements de terrain tels que les coulées de débris et des avalanches de roches se déplacent à des vitesses extrêmement rapides et peuvent avoir un impact sur de grandes zones, loin de leur source. Lorsque ces risques sont identifiés, les analyses du battement sont souvent nécessaires pour délimiter les zones inondables, estimer les risques et concevoir des structures d'atténuation. Une variété d'outils et de méthodes ont été élaborés pour ces fins, allant de simples corrélations empiriques-statistiques avancées de modèles informatiques en trois dimensions. Cet article donne un aperçu des outils et des méthodes qui sont actuellement disponibles et examine certains des principaux défis qui sont actuellement traités par les chercheurs, y compris le besoin d'une meilleure orientation pour la sélection des valeurs des paramètres d'entrée du modèle, le défi de traduire les résultats des modèles en estimations de vulnérabilité, le problème de la trop grande dispersion initiale dans la simulation de certains types de glissements de terrain, le défi de comptabilité pour les obstacles soudains de canal dans la simulation des écoulements de débris, et la sensibilité des modèles à la résolution topographique et les méthodes de filtrage. [Traduit par la Rédaction]

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

2014 Canadian Geotechnical Colloquium: Landslide runout analysis — current practice and challenges

McDougall

2017

Can. Geotech. J.

181

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“…This Pacific Northwest (PNW) region is naturally susceptible to landslides because of high and intense rainfall, steep mountains, active tectonics, and geologic and glacial history (Nadim et al, 2006;Sidle and Ochiai, 2006). The Oso landslide occurred in the vicinity of our study area in 2014, resulting in 43 fatalities and over USD 50 million in economic losses (Wartman et al, 2016).…”

Section: Approach Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

Strauch,

Istanbulluoglu,

Nudurupati

et al. 2018

HydroShare Resources

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Abstract. We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km 2 . The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at midelevations (1400 to 2400 m), and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

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“…Road construction changes the distribution of slope rock mass and increases erosion, transforms groundwater movement, due to road-related construction activities, which could facilitate landslides during and after road construction (Sidle et al 2011;Banerjee and Ghose 2016;Zhao et al 2018). In addition to road excavating, rainfall is also considered to be a vital trigger of landslides (Wartman et al 2016;Huang et al 2018;Ma et al 2018;Senthilkumar et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics and mechanisms of coupled road and rainfall-induced landslide in Sichuan China

et al. 2019

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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Field reconnaissance, geological mapping and photographic interpretation are utilized to study the failure mechanisms of July 2 catastrophic debris slide in 2017. The results suggested that the landslide was a reactivation of an ancient landslide after periods of relative dormancy, as manifestation of a retrogressive motion, which is triggered by the continuous engineering excavation as leads to rock mass unloading and decrease of mechanical properties of rock-soil mixture. The reactivated zone dominantly spread on the upper part of the ancient landslide area. The frequent tectonic movements rendered the potential landslide zone by fragmenting the structure. The fractured and fissile rock mass became further weakened by incessant rainfall that finally led to the failure of the rock mass. ARTICLE HISTORY

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The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide, Washington, USA

Cited by 122 publications

References 13 publications

2014 Canadian Geotechnical Colloquium: Landslide runout analysis — current practice and challenges

2014 Canadian Geotechnical Colloquium: Landslide runout analysis — current practice and challenges

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

Characteristics and mechanisms of coupled road and rainfall-induced landslide in Sichuan China

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