The 2007 French Presidential Election

Abstract

Abstract. We make use of a novel forecasting technique based on the Hotelling-Downs spatial framework to project vote outcomes in the second round of the two-round French presidential election system. In doing so we take advantage of the high degree of bimodality in the distribution of voter preferences to predict which candidates will make it into the second round. While our principal focus is on the 2007 election, we also look at the seven previous presidential elections in the French Fifth Republic, from 1965 through 2002.Résumé. Pour prédire le résultat du deuxième tour de scrutin des élections présidentielles françaises de 2007, nous avons fait appel à une nouvelle technique fondée sur le modèle spatial de Hotelling-Downs. En procédant ainsi, nous avons pris en compte le haut degré de bimodalité de la distribution des préférences pour pronostiquer lequel des deux candidats remporterait la victoire. Bien que nous ayons surtout centré notre attention sur l'élection présidentielle de 2007, nous avons aussi examiné les sept élections présidentielles antérieures de la Cinquième République, tenues de 1965 à 2002, afin de tester notre méthode et prédire ex ante les résultats de 2007.

Predicting French Presidential Elections: A Challenge for Forecasters

“…Third, considering FN support can better estimate the vote share of the Left and the Right. Fourth, the Downsian model of Lemennicier, Lescieux-Katir, and Grofman (2010) produced accurate results in 2007, suggesting that approaches beyond political-economy models are worth exploring.Most forecasting models have been grounded in the VP-function literature with a few adopting candidate and party strategies, strategic voting, and public opinion theory.…”

“…Third, considering FN support can better estimate the vote share of the Left and the Right. Fourth, the Downsian model of Lemennicier, Lescieux-Katir, and Grofman (2010) produced accurate results in 2007, suggesting that approaches beyond political-economy models are worth exploring.…”

“…In contrast to the political-economy models, Lemennicier, Lescieux-Katir, and Grofman (2010) introduced a Downsian-based median-voter model. This model focuses on the ideological position of the candidates relative to the median voter.…”