“…There is a pattern of earthquake directivity along the coast of western South America (Figure 1). In the north, earthquakes rupture to the north (1979 M w 8.2 Colombia event [ Kanamori and Given , 1981; Beck and Ruff , 1984]), in the middle, earthquakes are bilateral (1996 M w 7.5 Peru earthquake [e.g., Ihmlé et al , 1998], the 1960 M w 7.6 Peru earthquake [ Pelayo and Wiens , 1990], and the 1966 M w 8.0 Peru event [ Beck and Ruff , 1989]), and south of about 12°S, directivity is southerly (the 1960 M w 9.5 Chile event [e.g., Benioff et al , 1961]; the 1974 M w 8.1 Peru event (bilateral, but most moment to south [ Langer and Spence , 1995]); and the 1985 M w 8.0 Chile event (ruptured updip and to the south [ Choy and Dewey , 1988; Mendoza et al , 1994]), as well as the 1995, 1996, and 2001 earthquakes). On the basis of these patterns, we hypothesize that the future rerupture of the 1877 earthquake will rupture to the south.…”