The 1976-77 Climate Shift of the Pacific Ocean

Miller, Arthur J.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Barnett, T. P.; Graham, Nicholas E.; Oberhuber, Josef M.

doi:10.5670/oceanog.1994.11

Cited by 439 publications

(319 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…In particular, Rosenbluth et al (1997) reported upward trends of +0.20, +0.27 and +0.14°C per decade for annual mean temperature at Arica, Antofagasta and La Serena, respectively, during the period 1960-1992. Composites of annual mean anomalies of extreme daily temperature (maximum and minimum) at five stations in northern Chile shown in Figure 7 reveal that the positive trends are to a large extent determined by a rather abrupt increase in the mid-1970s associated with a climate shift in the Pacific ocean basin whose impacts have been described in several previous studies (Miller et al, 1994;Chavez et al, 2003;Hartmann and Wendler, 2005;Huang et al, 2005;Agosta and Compagnucci, 2008;Falvey and Garreaud, 2009;Jacques, 2010). Apart from the large interannual variability that characterizes these composites, including anomalously high values during El Niño episodes such as those in 1965, 1972, 1982-1983, 1987 and 1997-1998, a well-defined upward shift in the mid-1970s interrupted a period characterized by a weak negative trend in daily maximum temperature and a rather stationary condition in minimum temperature.…”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 90%

Climate change along the arid coast of northern Chile

Schulz

Boisier

Aceituno

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

103

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Long-term precipitation records from the extremely arid northern coast of Chile (18°S-30°S) were analysed to assess changes occurring at different time scales. Results are presented here along with a discussion on changes in the temperature and cloudiness regimes in order to offer a more comprehensive overview of the climate evolution in this extremely arid region. Apart from a significant influence of ENSO on the rainfall regime, characterized by a tendency for more frequent rainfall events during El Niño episodes, changes at the decadal time scale were identified in association with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Thus, the warm IPO-phase is associated with increased precipitation, while the opposite occurs during the cold IPO-phase. Changes occurring at the interannual and decadal time scales are superimposed on a long-term precipitation decline during the 20th century. Apart from the intensified dryness, the temperature records show a positive long-term trend resulting mainly from an abrupt warming in the mid-1970s, principally associated with a marked upwards shift of the minimum daily temperature, coinciding with the change from the cold to the warm phase of the IPO. However, the period following this step-like warming has been characterized by a persistent cooling trend, most evident in the maximum daily temperature, which is coherent with a negative trend in the sea surface temperature over a large oceanic region off the coast of northern Chile. In the northernmost region, this behaviour in the temperature regime was accompanied by a strong decrease in cloudiness since the 1970s. The negative trend in rainfall and the decrease in the total cloud cover are certainly important factors that could explain the coastal vegetation decline over the past decades in the coastal region north of 24°S.

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Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 90%

Climate change along the arid coast of northern Chile

Schulz

Boisier

Aceituno

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

103

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“…2d). During the mid-1970s, shifts in North Pacific climate regime were associated with a deepening of the Aleutian Low and a strengthening of the mid-latitude westerlies (Miller et al 1994;Nakamura et al 1997;Mantua et al 1997;Zhang et al 1997;Wu et al 2005), which affected Indian monsoon strength (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994;Wang and Ding 2006). This regime shift also involved changes in the PDO and ENSO (Guilderson and Schrag 1998;Mantua and Hare 2002;Alexander et al 2002).…”

Section: Causes Of the Late 1970s Nk δ 18 O Shift: Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Tibetan Plateau ice core δ18O reflects abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation in the late 1970s

et al. 2015

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change. Correlation analyses suggest that the large-scale modes of variability (PDO and ENSO, i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation) play important roles in modulating NK δ 18 O changes. The NK δ 18 O minimum at the end of the 1970s coincides with a PDO phase shift, an inflexion point of the zonal index (representing the overall intensity of the surface westerly anomalies over middle latitudes) as well as ENSO, implying interdecadal modulation of the influence of the PDO/ENSO on the Indian monsoon on southern TP precipitation δ 18 O. While convective activity above North India controls the intra-seasonal variability of precipitation δ 18 O in southern TP, other processes associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation act at the inter-annual scale.

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“…A change in the relationship between ENSO and East Asian climate after the mid-1970s has also been noted by Xie et al (2010). The mid1970s is often associated with a climate or regime shift (Miller et al, 1994), as many climate variables exhibited a change in behaviour at that time. On the other hand, the link between both EOFs and the diabatic heating anomalies appears to be robust throughout the study period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Two major modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon

Sun

Greatbatch

Park

et al. 2010

Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.

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We study the two primary modes of variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, as identified using a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The second mode is shown to be related to changes in intensity of the South Asian High at 100 hPa while, consistent with previous work, the first mode is associated with an index for the shear vorticity of the 850 hPa zonal wind over the monsoon region. We show that a linear, dry dynamical model, when driven by the diabatic heating anomalies associated with each mode, can reproduce many of the anomalous circulation features, especially for the first EOF and in the lower troposphere. The model results indicate the importance of diabatic heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of both modes, especially EOF-1, and illustrate the role of local diabatic feedback for intensifying the circulation anomalies; in particular, the subtropical anticyclonic anomalies that are found in the positive phase of both modes, and the circulation anomaly associated with the Meiyu/Changma/Baiu rain band. A running cross-correlation analysis shows that the second EOF is consistently linked to both the decaying and the onset phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events throughout the study period . We attribute the connection in the onset phase to zonal wind anomalies along the Equator in the west Pacific associated with this mode. On the other hand, a link between the first EOF and ENSO is found only in the post-1979 period. We note also the role of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of EOF-1, and a link to the variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the case of EOF-2.

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The 1976-77 Climate Shift of the Pacific Ocean

Cited by 439 publications

References 19 publications

Climate change along the arid coast of northern Chile

Climate change along the arid coast of northern Chile

Southern Tibetan Plateau ice core δ18O reflects abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation in the late 1970s

Two major modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon

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