The 1966 “century” flood in Italy: A meteorological and hydrological revisitation

Malguzzi, P.; Grossi, Giovanna; Buzzi, A.; Ranzi, Roberto; Buizza, Roberto

doi:10.1029/2006jd007111

Cited by 121 publications

(135 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Consequently an adequate set of data for the hydraulic model calibration/validation in the urban reach of Arno river is lacking. A model reconstruction of the flood peaks is given in Malguzzi et al (2006). This study and various other technical reports (e.g.…”

Section: Hydraulic Model Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

Arrighi

Brugioni²,

Castelli

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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The adoption of 2007/60/EC Directive requires European countries to implement flood hazard and flood risk maps by the end of 2013. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. The route to flood risk assessment is consequently much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. A parsimonious quasi-2-D hydraulic model is here adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. It is here evaluated as being accurate in flood depth estimation in urban areas with a high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM). The accuracy, estimated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence, is characterized in the downtown's most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 € m⁻² yr⁻¹, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents' income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the building characteristics. As a final example application, the estimated risk values have been used to compare different retrofitting measures. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This is based on the georeferenced census system as the optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of the risk spatial variability, and they can be easily aggregated to whatever upper scale is needed given that they are geographically defined as contiguous polygons. Damage is calculated through stage–damage curves, starting from census data on building type and function, for the main categories in the study area: structures, household contents and commercial contents. This method is tested in the area of the St. Croce district in Florence, one of the most seriously affected in the famous 1966 flood

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Section: Hydraulic Model Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

Arrighi

Brugioni²,

Castelli

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…It has to be underlined, also, that these figures may not be valid for the prediction of 'extreme' floods, with return periods of about 100 years or more. For this purpose, specific analyses of extreme events are needed such as those by Malguzzi et al (2006) with reference to the 'century' flood which affected central and northern Italy in 1966, and by Chancibault et al (2006) for the Gard flood in 2002.…”

Section: Flood Forecasting Using Coupled Hydrometeorological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological aspects of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme: findings from field experiments and simulations

Ranzi

Zappa

Bacchi

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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ABSTRACT:The Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) was a unique initiative to improve the understanding of processes involved in orographically influenced precipitation events and in the related emergence and mitigation of floods in the Alps. This study presents a summary of the results from investigations of hydrological relevance in areas to the south (Lago Maggiore watershed) and north (Ammer watershed) of the Alps. A special focus is given to the 1999 Special Observing Period (SOP) experiment. MAP has been an important dialogue platform between the hydrological and meteorological communities. A common goal has been the verification and the assessment of errors and sources of uncertainty of new coupled techniques for flood forecasting in mountainous environments. The ensemble multi-model error in the hydrometeorological forecast, two days in advance, was 30% of the observed peaks and 15% of the observed runoff volumes, on average. To provide some insight on the relative importance and priority of observation strategies of hydrological factors such as soil moisture and reservoir volume in contributing to the flood intensity, the MAP project 'Hydrology' focused also on the role and magnitude of water storage in reservoirs. The presented analyses indicate that for the investigated basins and flood events, the storage reservoirs may retain, on average, up to 10% of the event runoff volume and are key elements contributing to the mitigation of peak runoff. The observed variability of soil moisture is large and therefore it has been confirmed that severe difficulties remain in instrumental monitoring of soil moisture in mountainous environments. The sensitivity of floods to soil moisture in the physio-geographic context analysed here seems, however, to be minor, due to the shallow soil layer covering the underlying rocks and the relatively high permeability of soils which reduce the 'hydrological memory' of the soil cover in the mountain basins investigated.

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“…The MOLOCH simulation was started at 0100 UTC with 50 vertical levels and boundary conditions, taken from the BOLAM run, was updated every 30 min, and lasted 12 h. A full presentation of the models and the nesting procedure can be found in Malguzzi et al (2006). The non-hydrostatic model MOLOCH integrates the fully compressible set of equations, using as prognostic variables pressure, temperature, specific humidity, horizontal and vertical velocity components, and five water species.…”

Section: Numericsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical study of slantwise circulations in a strongly sheared prefrontal environment

Fantini¹,

Malguzzi²,

Buzzi³

2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The simultaneous presence of convective, symmetric and inertial instability in a prefrontal region of strong vertical wind shear was simulated with the nonhydrostatic model MOLOCH. Model diagnostics of absolute vorticity, pseudoangular momentum, saturated equivalent potential temperature and vorticity reveal a sequence of events that includes ' M-adjustment', followed by slanted ascent in symmetrically unstable regions, becoming saturated in the later stages. An idealized experiment without orography was performed to isolate the presence and role of instabilities characterizing the development. The diagnosed circulation is reminiscent of a wavenumber-two normal mode of dry symmetric instability, while moist symmetric instability is confined to a very limited region, despite the appearance of wider areas of negative moist potential vorticity. The evaluation of moist thermodynamic quantities which give proper account of condensate loading is suggested as a possible resolution of this apparent inconsistency.

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The 1966 “century” flood in Italy: A meteorological and hydrological revisitation

Cited by 121 publications

References 24 publications

Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

Hydrological aspects of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme: findings from field experiments and simulations

Numerical study of slantwise circulations in a strongly sheared prefrontal environment

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