The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19

Abstract

This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular focus on topics that have seen a renewed interest because of COVID-19. We begin by providing an overview of key contextual and epidemiological details as well as the data that are available to researchers. We then examine the effects on mortality, fertility, and the economy in the short and medium run. The role of non-pharmaceutical interventions in shaping those outcomes is discussed throughout. We then examine longer-lasting health consequences and their impact on human capital accumulation and socioeconomic status. Throughout the paper we highlight important areas for future work. (JEL E24, E32, I12, I15, J13, J24, N30)

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

“…That seasonal outbreaks of influenza have become a part of everyday life in many parts of the world obscures both the human and economic toll of "the flu," which is rising annually even in the absence of deadly pandemic outbreaks such as the one in 1918 (see also Beach et al, 2020). As a "commonplace" disease, the pathways are somewhat diluted, although major outbreaks are likely to trigger strong behavioral and policy-induced reductions in labor supply and consumption (cf.…”

“…Epidemic or endemic diseases can also be conceived as drivers of migration. WhileBeach et al (2020) discuss migration in the context of the 1918 influenza pandemic, this appears less evident in the context of more modern epidemics, although arguably wherever infectious diseases stall economic development they contribute to migration incentives.…”

The Role of School Nurses During the 1918 Pandemic: Lessons That Apply to COVID-19

“…Keywords: COVID-19; school nursing history; role of the school nurse; data collection; advocacy T he current COVID-19 pandemic has been compared with the Spanish Flu of 1918 that devastated the United States. Although the viruses causing the outbreaks are different, both pandemics have impacted the health and economy, while highlighting inequities in care (Beach et al, 2020;Chalasani, 2021;Lakshmi et al, 2020). During 1918, the virus infected one quarter of the U.S. population and was most lethal in young adults, the very young, and very old.…”

The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data

“…Analysis of JP Morgan Chase data (Cox et al, 2020;Farrell et al, 2020) has described in detail how household balance sheets have changed as a result of the COVID-19 recession and how households have responded to fiscal stimulus. A variety of studies have examined the effects of the first set of lockdowns on economic behavior and evaluating the degree to which there are trade-offs between policy interventions attempting to contain the virus and economic damage (Aum et al, 2020;Beach et al, 2020;Barro et al, 2020;Coibion et al, 2020;Correia et al, 2020;Cui et al, 2020;Dave et al, 2020;Friedson et al, 2020;Hacioglu et al, 2020;Glover et al, 2020;Guerrieri et al, 2020;Hall et al, 2020;Lilley et al, 2020;Miles et al, 2020;Jones et al, 2020;Toxvaerd, 2020;Wang, 2020).…”