The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.015

Cited by 50 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Those emissions would add to the roughly 190 Gt of CO 2 committed by existing coal-fired power plants that were built until the end of 2016. Even though the carbon budget for a 1.5 • C target is to date not fully explored and hence subject to substantial uncertainty, available estimates based on the IPCC AR5 arrive at a median of roughly 113 Gt CO 2 (with an uncertainty range of ±112.5 Gt CO 2 ) 7 . This budget would already be exceeded by the emissions locked in by those coal power plants projected to be built during the next years.…”

Section: Coal Undermines Long-term Climate Targetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, it deviates from unconstrained mitigation scenarios, which typically project emissions to peak by or even before 2020 [25]. This scenario shifts a larger share of emission reductions to the second half of the century than conventional 2 • C scenarios, so that it can be considered to be of lower ambition in the 7 One newer study implies that the available budget for achieving 1.5 • C might be larger and in the magnitude of what was assumed previously to be available for achieving 2 • C with a high probability [27]. We consider those results as an optimistic estimate.…”

Section: Coal Undermines Long-term Climate Targetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some important coal-consuming countries (especially China and India) have shelved the construction of several coal-fired plants that had been announced or were in the planning stage (see figure S1 in the supplementary information available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/13/024019/mmedia). Economically recoverable coal reserves may also be substantially lower than commonly assumed [7]. Are these signs of 'coal's terminal decline', as suggested by the thus titled Greenpeace report [8]?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

Edenhofer

Steckel

Jakob

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

107

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We estimate the cumulative future emissions expected to be released by coal power plants that are currently under construction, announced, or planned. Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries' (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC. If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2• C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about 'coal's terminal decline' may thereby be premature. The phase-out of coal requires dedicated and well-designed policies. We discuss the political economy of policy options that could avoid a continued build-up of coal-fired power plants.

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Section: Coal Undermines Long-term Climate Targetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Coal Undermines Long-term Climate Targetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

Edenhofer

Steckel

Jakob

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

107

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In comparison, annual global carbon emissions (excluding other greenhouse gases) are around 40 GtCO2, most of which are related to the burning of fossil fuels . The remaining carbon budget is several times lower than the carbon content of current fossil fuel reserves, although estimates of the latter vary widely (e.g., Refs ).…”

Section: Pathways To a Low‐carbon Energy Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic growth and development with low‐carbon energy

Fankhauser

Jotzo

2017

WIREs Climate Change

100

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Energy is needed for economic growth, and access to cheap, reliable energy is an essential development objective. Historically most incremental energy demand has been met through fossil fuels; however, in future that energy will have to be low carbon and ultimately zero-carbon. Decarbonization can and needs to happen at varying speeds in all countries, depending on national circumstances. This article reviews the implications of a transition to low-carbon energy on economic growth and development in current low-income countries. It sets out empirical findings about trajectories for energy intensity and emissions intensity of economic growth; explores pathways to accelerate decarbonization; reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on economic costs and co-benefits of energy decarbonization; and assesses analytical approaches. It discusses the opportunities that might arise in terms of a cleaner, more dynamic and more sustainable growth model, and the options for developing countries to implement a lesscarbon intensive model of economic development.

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“…Although recent trajectories of GHG emissions are closest to the RCP 8.5 (supplementary material figure S7), this climate change scenario incorporates some assumptions concerning the use of fossil energy resources that are in the long-run technically improbable (Capellán-Pérez et al 2016, Ritchie and Dowlatabadi 2017a, 2017b. In view of the concerns and evidence regarding rapid changes in land use and climate, it is counterintuitive to use the early years of the last decade as baseline.…”

Section: Strengths and Limitations Of The Projection Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact assessment on the potential rubber cultivating area in the Greater Mekong Subregion

Golbon

Cotter

Sauerborn

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In order to map potential shifts of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) cultivation as a consequence of the ongoing climate change in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), we applied rule-based classifications to a selection of nine gridded climatic data projections (precipitation and temperature, and global circulation models (GCMs)). These projections were used to form an ensemble model set covering the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at three future time sections: 2030, 2050 and 2070. We used a post classification ensemble formation technique based on a majority outcome of the classification to not only provide an ensemble projection but also to spatially track and weight the disagreements between the classified GCMs. A similar approach was used to form an ensemble model aggregating the involved climatic factors. The level of agreement between the ensemble projections and GCM products was assessed for each climatic factor separately, and also at the aggregate level. Shifting zones with high confidence were clustered based on their land use composition, physiographic attributes and proximity. Following the same ensemble formation technique and by setting a 28• C threshold for annual mean temperature, we mapped areas prone to exposure to potentially excessive heat levels. Almost the entire shift projected with high certainty was in the form of expansion, associated with temperature components of climate and temporally limited to the 2030 time window where the total area conducive to rubber cultivation in the GMS is projected to exceed 50% by 2030 (from 44.3% at the turn of the century). The largest detected cluster (41% of the total shifting area), which also is the most ecologically degraded, corresponds to Northern Vietnam and Guangxi Autonomous Region of China. The area exposed to potentially excessive heat is projected to undergo a 25-fold increase under RCP4.5 by 2030 from 14568 km 2 at the baseline.

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The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?

Cited by 50 publications

References 32 publications

Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

Economic growth and development with low‐carbon energy

Climate change impact assessment on the potential rubber cultivating area in the Greater Mekong Subregion

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