Testing time-sensitive influences of weather on street robbery

Abstract

Although the relationship between weather and crime has been extensively investigated over the past century, little consensus has emerged on the directions of the relationships observed and the mechanisms through which weather might exert its influence. This paper advances an argument that the interpretation of weather, and subsequent activities based on that interpretation, leads to spatio-temporal variations in criminal opportunities, and hence crime. Two hypotheses relating to unseasonal weather and effects of weather on discretionary activities are proposed. Negative binomial regression models are used to test these at the 6-hour shift unit of analysis on street robberies in the Strathclyde region of Scotland. In line with predictions, in this temperate microclimate, more favourable weather in winter (higher temperatures and low wind speeds) was associated with increases in robbery. Partial support was also found for the hypothesis regarding time delineated for discretionary activities. Here, temperature, wind speed and humidity were seen to be significant predictors of robbery during the night shift and weekends. Notably rain was shown to have a negative relationship with robbery at the weekends. This affirms that people are less likely to venture outdoors when it is raining when travel behaviour is optional. Counter to our hypothesised effects, fog was the only variable to significantly interact with public holidays. We conclude by discussing how these analyses might be extended and briefly discuss implications for crime prevention.

Evaluating the Impact the Weekday Has on Near-Repeat Victimization: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Street Robberies in the City of Vienna, Austria

“…Street robbery is defined as "the use or threat of force to steal property from a person in public space" [26,27]. Street robbery is distinct from theft due to its appertaining violent nature.…”

“…Street robbery is distinct from theft due to its appertaining violent nature. Street robbery is believed to be the main source of fear among people in urban areas [27]. Thus, it can involve life-threatening violence, a loss of control, and an assault to personal space and privacy.…”

“…Street robbery tends to concentrate at specific times and at particular places. In the interpretation of why these patterns of street robberies occur, routine activities of both offenders and victims, and the time of contact between these, can be useful [27]. While the theoretical concept of an optimal forager was mainly associated with an offender's behavior committing burglaries (e.g., [28]), the same theory can also be related to other types of crime, namely robbery.…”

“…Some environments are more at risk so that these areas are flagged by robbers. Examples of flagged places are identical to those identified in the optimal forager theory: places that stay open late and make cash transactions (e.g., bars, fast food restaurants), places that are not well illuminated, places with good opportunities to escape, and places with tourists and (young) people under the influence of alcohol or drugs [27]. These flagged places and people have enduring attributes and are therefore attractive to robbers [29].…”

Population at risk: using areal interpolation and Twitter messages to create population models for burglaries and robberies

“…beaches, parks). Also, the decrease and increase of temperature at the hourly level can help to predict street robbery (Tompson & Bowers, 2015). …”