Testing the Robustness of Management Decisions to Uncertainty: Everglades Restoration Scenarios

Fuller, Michael M.; Gross, Louis J.; Duke‐Sylvester, Scott M.; Palmer, Mark

doi:10.1890/06-0838.1

Cited by 31 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Mantua et al, 2010;Laize et al, 2014). Restoration planners can evaluate uncertainty by considering multiple potential future scenarios, including multiple climates, streamflow, and ecological projections, in their conceptual or quantitative models of climate change effects on riparian ecosystems and restoration outcomes (Fuller et al, 2008;Wilby, 2010;Veloz et al, 2013). For example, in projected 'lower flows' watersheds, differences between riparian communities along moisture gradients may provide insights into likely future changes in community composition.…”

Section: Incorporating Climate Change Into Riparian Restoration Plannmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

et al. 2015

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Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services.In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

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Section: Incorporating Climate Change Into Riparian Restoration Plannmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

et al. 2015

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“…These consequences are now projected with some confidence because of the participating stakeholders with diverse knowledges and narratives (Fuller et al 2008). For example, Fuller et al explain that ecological decisions must be balanced with the different needs of species and habitats and the practical reality of a variety of stakeholders' interests.…”

Section: Ecojustice Without the Environmental Sciencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Educational Reflections on the “Ecological Crisis”: EcoJustice, Environmentalism, and Sustainability

Mueller

2008

Sci & Educ

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There is a tendency by scholars arguing for a more just and sustainable future to position the ''ecological crisis'' as a fundamental reason for major educational reforms. Relying on crisis-talk to fuel social and environmental justice and environmentalism reinforces the thinking of the past, which inadvertently perpetuates the acceptance of present cultural attitudes which frame our relationships with others and the natural world. To evaluate previous cultural thinking and associated traditions of Euro-West society, Chet Bowers asserts that we ought to analyze how assumptions are carried forward as metaphors, which are associated with attitudes towards science, technology, and nature. This pedagogy is called ecojustice education and serves to conserve and sustain cultural diversity and the biodiversity of Earth's ecosystems, which are threatened and vulnerable. But, also carried forward in the language of ecojustice philosophy (and other ecological works) is a presumption that feeds into scientifically proving that a crisis exists, which is associated with organizing schools around an implicit shock doctrine of fear and urgency. This paper explores these assumptions and others associated with a supposition of ecological crisis. The ecological crisis has the potential to marginalize many diverse people who are needed during these times of increasing ecological awareness and uncertainties. Situating education (and the world) in the frenzy associated with crisis, versus the assertion that schools should increase awareness around the belief that a more sustainable lifestyle is beneficial for the individual, the community and the environment is a worthwhile debate and is rich with respect to research opportunities in education.

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“…decisions) must be evaluated to allow for management to improve over time (Hyde et al. , 2005; Fuller et al. , 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially‐explicit sensitivity analysis for conservation management: exploring the influence of decisions in invasive alien plant management

Roura‐Pascual

Krug

Richardson

et al. 2010

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Decision‐support models have considerable potential for guiding management strategies when problems are complex. The robustness of such decision‐making processes is rarely evaluated, and the influence of decision criteria (or factors) in management decisions is seldom considered. We present a framework for a spatially‐explicit sensitivity analysis by using a scheme developed to provide objective guidelines, in the form of static priority maps, for managing woody invasive alien plants (IAPs). Location The Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Methods The model included seven factors related to management history, fire risk, and the age, identity, density and spread of IAPs. Each factor had a weight associated that reflected its relative importance in prioritizing areas for clearing. We changed these factor weights using three approaches of sensitivity analysis and assessed the effect of these changes on the spatial structure of the resulting priority maps in three different management regions. Results Different outcomes arose depending on the importance given to different factors. Priority maps were most sensitive to the fire‐related factors, suggesting that fire is both a crucial driver of invasion in fynbos and an overriding determinant of management options. The factor ‘area burnt recently’ provided crucial information for the effective clearing of IAPs. The sensitivity of the model to changes in other factors was more context specific: levels of sensitivity were highly dependent on different features of the landscape, especially the spatial heterogeneity of particular factors. Main conclusions By clarifying the importance of factors in shaping priority maps, the sensitivity analysis framework enabled us to identify the necessary factors to produce outcomes matching a pre‐selected management strategy. This is important for cost‐efficient management, as acquisition and curation of data is expensive. This spatially‐explicit sensitivity analysis is, thus, recommended to evaluate the robustness and generality of selected management strategies, and validate the assumptions derived from decision‐making protocols.

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Testing the Robustness of Management Decisions to Uncertainty: Everglades Restoration Scenarios

Cited by 31 publications

References 29 publications

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Educational Reflections on the “Ecological Crisis”: EcoJustice, Environmentalism, and Sustainability

Spatially‐explicit sensitivity analysis for conservation management: exploring the influence of decisions in invasive alien plant management

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