Testing Possible Scenario-Based Responses of Vegetation Under Expected Climatic Changes in Khuzestan Province

Abstract

Projections of future scenarios are scarce in developing countries where human activities are increasing and impacting land uses. We present a research based on the assessment of the baseline trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature data for the Khuzestan Province, Iran, from 1984 to 2015 compiled from ground-based and remotely sensed sources. To achieve this goal, the Sen’s slope estimator, the Mann-Kendall test, and Pearson’s correlation test were used. After that, future trends in precipitation and temperature were estimated using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) model and were then used to estimate the NDVI trend for two future periods: from 2016 to 2046 and from 2046 to 2075. Our results showed that during the baseline period, precipitation decreased at all stations: 33.3% displayed a significant trend and the others were insignificant ones. Over the same period, the temperature increased at 66.7% of stations while NDVI decreased at all stations. The NDVI–precipitation relationship was positive while NDVI–temperature showed an inverse trend. During the first of the possible future periods and under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, NDVI and precipitation decreased, and temperatures significantly increased. In addition, the same trends were observed during the second future period; most of these were statistically significant. We conclude that much assessments are valuable and integral components of effective ecosystem planning and decisions.

Gauging the Assessment of Some Anthropogenic Factors Driving Climate- Change

“…Global warming and the consequent changes in climate have had a substantial impact on arid and semi-arid ecosystems, resulting in a decrease in species richness, deterioration of population structure, and alterations in the behaviour and activities of numerous other species. 34,35 Precipitation, temperature, drainage, the mineral content and the soil type, all influence the vegetation in any particular place. 36 Damaneh and team studied the ill-effects of changing climate on vegetation and concluded that periodic assessments of ecosystems are necessary and valuable for future ecosystem planning.…”

“…36 Damaneh and team studied the ill-effects of changing climate on vegetation and concluded that periodic assessments of ecosystems are necessary and valuable for future ecosystem planning. 35 Though several land cover changes, such as reforestation, agricultural intensification, urban growth, and reservoir construction, in recent times have taken place in accordance with our sustainable development objectives, the changes in land use/land cover practices adopted in earlier times have resulted in land fragmentation and land…”

Factors determining the soil available water during the last two decades (1997–2019) in southern Spain

“…The soil water balance has been traditionally used to estimate various soil hydrological parameters (Wang and Dickinson 2012) and can be fundamental to understand the soil-plant-atmosphere relationships (Gabarrón-Galeote et al 2013) that underpin diverse hydrological issues. The spatiotemporal evolution of soil water conditions directly determines various natural Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel conditions including the state and composition of vegetation cover, vulnerability to erosion processes, and the stability of soil aggregates (Eskandari Damaneh et al 2021). This is also fundamental to assess other phenomena including climate change and desertification, which are necessary to develop efficient water resource management plans (Jodar-Abellan et al 2019a.…”

Relevance of Integrated Air, Soil and Water Research Studies for the New Millennia

“…In both, we learned about ecosystem services, restoration, and alternatives to conserve bucolic landscapes and reach biodiversity territories. Moreover, interesting contributions on climate change in Mexico, Iran or Ethiopia (Eskandari Damaneh et al, 2021) were published, revealing a negative impact on vegetation, agriculture, and soils.…”