Testing for Temporally Differentiated Relationships Among Potentially Criminogenic Places and Census Block Street Robbery Counts

Abstract

This study examined street robbery patterns in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from the years 2009 to 2011 to determine whether the effects of potentially criminogenic places are different across different periods of the day. Census block (N = 13,164) street robbery counts across four periods (6:45 a.m. to 9:59 a.m., 10:00 a.m. to 4:29 p.m., 4:30 p.m. to 9:14 p.m., and 9:15 p.m. to 6:44 a.m.) were modeled with 12 different potentially criminogenic places, 3 measures of illicit markets, 4 compositional control variables, and spatially lagged versions of the 12 potentially criminogenic places and population using simultaneously estimated negative binomial regression models. Differences in the magnitudes of the parameter estimates across the time periods were assessed with Wald tests. Overall, the patterns across the four models were mostly consistent with the effects hypothesized based on the study's crime pattern theory and time-geography theoretical frame; yet differences in the magnitudes of the coefficients were less pronounced than hypothesized. Overall, the results provide moderate support for the crime pattern theory and time-geography explanation of spatial-temporal robbery patterns; however, numerous points are raised for future crime and place research.An axiom of the crime and place literature is that certain types of places are important predictors of the spatial distribution of crime (P. L. Brantingham and P. J. Brantingham, 1999; P. J. Brantingham and P. L. Brantingham, 1991;Wilcox and Eck, 2011) and even can be used to forecast crime events (Caplan, Kennedy, and Miller, 2010). The link among certain types of places and higher crime levels has been empirically demonstrated for many different types of places, such as high schools, bars and taverns, convenience stores, public transportation stations, check-cashing stores, liquor stores, parks, and public housing communities (

An information theory approach to hypothesis testing in criminological research

“…Weisburd (2015) offers a recent and comprehensive analysis showing this, to support his call for a new criminology of place. As noted by Weisburd (2015), and by Haberman and Ratcliffe (2015), empirical research has widely supported theoretical expectations about crime and place. Lee et al (2017) present a systematic review showing the consistent links between crime and place.…”

“…Other types of undesirable but legal places, such as pawnshops, check cashing facilities and nightclubs, have also been examined in several cities. Such places are often referred to as "criminogenic, " (Bernasco and Block 2011;Groff and Lockwood 2014;Haberman and Ratcliffe 2015) unpopular, or troublesome (Wilcox and Eck 2011).…”

“…Analyzing about 24,600 census blocks in Chicago, all facility types were significantly related to robbery. Haberman and Ratcliffe (2015) focus mostly on criminogenic places, but recognize how the kinds of facilities regularly used by large numbers of people can increase crime risks by serving as crime generators. Such places include corner stores, fast-food restaurants, ATMs, and mass transit stations.…”

“…Building on Haberman and Ratcliffe (2015), Bernasco et al (2017) combine measures of place types with time of day and day of week to assess whether robbery increases for specific combinations of places and times in Chicago. They find little temporal variation except for the presence of high schools, and that robbery is higher in census blocks with a variety of small-scale retail places not normally viewed as criminogenic, such as restaurants, grocery stores, gas stations, and laundromats.…”

“…(Yu and Maxfield 2014, p. 314). Like Bernasco et al (2017), and Haberman and Ratcliffe (2015), we examine robbery. Unlike previous research, we distinguish robbery of commercial places and street robbery, expecting that the presence of different kinds of facilities and businesses will be differently related to each type of robbery.…”