Testing for multiple bubbles in the copper price: Periodically collapsing behavior

Su, Chi‐Wei; Wang, Xiao-Qing; Zhu, Hua; Tao, Ran; Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia; Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101587

Cited by 31 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(103 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Second, compared to previous literature, this article uses extensive research period. Previous research examining copper price bubbles [ 15 , 40 ] did not consider the period of the Covid-19 pandemic. Thirdly, this article employs GSADF [ 51 ] to detect bubbles in a long period.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thirdly, this article employs GSADF [ 51 ] to detect bubbles in a long period. Many studies on identifying market price bubbles have utilized the unit root test, potentially leading to issues with reliability [ 15 ]. Furthermore, numerous studies have identified instances of inflated prices through the utilization of Markov switching ADF, multiple-regime switching, Monte-Carlo simulations, the momentum threshold autoregressive test, and MTAR methods [ 52 ].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Identifying price bubbles in copper market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach

Peng,

Ni,

Wang

2023

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper uses the test proposed by Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller to identify whether there are multiple bubbles in copper price. The empirical results show that base on market fundamentals, there are seven bubbles existed from January 1980 to March 2023. Through analyses, the first two bubbles can be explained by the demand from Japan by the industry concentration and persistent supply constraint. The third to sixth bubbles are mainly negatively impacted by the global financial crisis and growing demand of China. The last bubble is caused by the economic recovery from Covid-19. The logit regression has stated that aluminum price, copper production, all metals index and GDP have a positive impact on copper bubbles, while China’s copper imports and precious metals price negatively explains copper bubbles. The main contributions are the investigation of the copper price bubbles, its determinants and the different technique of GSADF to detect copper price bubbles. Furthermore, it provides helpful information for those investors to make reasonable investment decisions and thus, avoid potential price risk.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying price bubbles in copper market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach

Peng,

Ni,

Wang

2023

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Li (2019) found that price jumps in natural gas futures markets were higher during political and economic instability, using a discrete‐time pricing model. Su et al (2020), using the augmented Dickey‐Fuller approach, examined the period of 1980–2019, when the price of copper in the United States deviated from its basic value. They found that four explosive bubbles played a role in price fluctuations.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Free market economy: Is the market or prices free? Theory and evidence from the United States

Karacan

YARDIMCI

2023

American J Econ Sociol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global price increases have reached their highest levels in recent times. Finding the reasons for the price increase is very important for economic stabilization. In this paper, it has been estimated that exorbitant price increases may be related to a free market economy. For this purpose, unlike other studies, a comparative analysis of the impact of the free market economy on prices was conducted. The study covers the period 1990–2020, and using the U.S. economy, which is a free market economy, the relationship between property rights, the size of government in the economy, and prices were examined using the autoregressive distributed lag model. The results show that the free market model has a positive effect on the price increase, while the size of the government's economy does not affect the price increase in the same direction. This study aims to provide a different perspective to policymakers in the fight against price instability, which is one of the most important problems facing the economy.

show abstract

“…They looked at the price of the metal from a historical date to the present day and found that the sale value was 50% of the time lower than the projected value. Su et al (Su et al, 2020) stated that the emergence and collapse of several price bubbles are connected to supposition, macroeconomic instability, a supply-demand imbalance, and economic turmoil. Tahar et al (Tahar et al, 2021) agreed that commodities prices shocks might have differential effects.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new global optimum solution model based on multi-value dynamic programming for the cut-off grade optimization in a surface mining complex

Biswas

Sinha

Sen

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In techno-economic concern, cut-off grade (COG) optimization is the key for efficient mineral liquidation from thehuge metalliferous surface mining sector. In this paper, a sequentially advancing algorithm based on discretemulti-value dynamic programming (MDP) has been developed to calculate the global optimum COG of alarge-scale open-pit metalliferous deposit. The proposed COG optimization algorithm aims to overcome thelimitations of straightforward classical techniques in determining the optimum COG. This discrete COG-MDPmodel is the first of its kind and has the novelty of dealing with the simulation of eight dynamic possibilities toachieve the maximal global Net Present Value (NPV). A high-level programming language (Python) has been usedto develop the computer model to deal with the complexity of handling a minimum of 500 series of dynamicvariables. This model can generate results in polynomial-time from the complex of mining, milling, and smeltingand refining system corresponding to various limiting conditions. The prime objective considered in the model isto optimize the COG of a metalliferous deposit. A working open-pit copper mining complex from India has beenused to validate the model. In this study, the optimum COG for the Malanjkhand copper deposit has been found tobe (0.33%, 0.23%, 0.52%, 0.26%, 0.27%, 0.22%, 0.24%) with a maximum NPV of ₹ (12204, 14653, 16948, 14609,21454, 26717, 38821) million corresponding to various scenarios. The findings also show that the present valuegradually hits zero after the project’s life cycle, confirming the typical pattern of other mining firms.

show abstract

Testing for multiple bubbles in the copper price: Periodically collapsing behavior

Cited by 31 publications

References 64 publications

Identifying price bubbles in copper market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach

Identifying price bubbles in copper market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach

Free market economy: Is the market or prices free? Theory and evidence from the United States

A new global optimum solution model based on multi-value dynamic programming for the cut-off grade optimization in a surface mining complex

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About