Testing for Causality in Regional Econometric Models

Green, R. Jeffery; Albrecht, Gary R.

doi:10.1177/016001767900400204

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1979

1989

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“…The notion of statistical causality as employed by Green and Albrecht (1979) is that &dquo;(i) The future cannot cause the past. Strict causality can occur only with the past causing the present or future&dquo; and &dquo; ( ii ) It is sensible to discuss causality only for a group of stochastic processes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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L'Esperance

1979

International Regional Science Review

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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L'Esperance

1979

International Regional Science Review

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Migration and Capital

Clark

Gertler

1983

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

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Using yearly estimates of US. interstate migration and state-level capital stocks we explore the relationships between migration and capital in a time-series framework for the period 1958-1975. The analysis shows that capital growth leads in-migration for fast-growing states, although no obvious relationship is apparent for some rapidly growing areas. However, for slow-growth states the relationships are more complex and interwoven. Box-Jenkins techniques and tests of causality are utilized to describe the temporal structure of migration and capital. Finally, we offer suggestions toward reconceptualizing the labor market relations implicit in regional economic growth and, in particular, labor migration.

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Firm Entry and Exit: Causality Tests and Economic‐base Linkages*

Mayo

Flynn

1989

Journal of Regional Science

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One of the foundations of applied regional economics down through the years has been economic base theory (EBT). EBT presumes that economic activity within the basic sector unidirectionally causes economic activity in nonbasic sectors. In recent years, however, increasing attention has been given to the possibility that traditionally nonbasic activities (e.g., services) may be quite important in determining a region's total economic activity. In this paper, we examine the nature and direction of causality of economic activity within a regional economy. Using novel data on entry and exit of firms, the empirid analysis provides new insights into the strengths and weaknesses of traditional economic base theory.

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Testing for Causality in Regional Econometric Models

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

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Migration and Capital

Firm Entry and Exit: Causality Tests and Economic‐base Linkages*

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