Testing fisher effect for the USA: application of nonlinear ARDL model

Ongan, Serdar; Göçer, İsmet

doi:10.1108/jfep-09-2018-0127

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…They pursued a strategic evaluation to identify the most effective extent of quantitative easing necessary to navigate through turbulent economic circumstances. Ongan et al approached the Fisher effect from a fresh methodological perspective, deviating from prior studies that relied on the prevalent linear representation of the Fisher equation [12]. Their study aimed to investigate the existence of the Fisher effect in the United States, employing innovative methodological techniques.…”

Section: The Application In Economicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application and Limitation of Fisher Model

Han

2024

HBEM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This essay explores the Fisher Effect hypothesis, which posits a direct relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation. It delves into the Fisher model's concept, its implications, and its significance in economics. The research question of the model's validity and applicability is examined through a review of current research findings, revealing mixed results. The essay highlights the diverse applications of the Fisher model in monetary policy, finance, and decision-making across various economic sectors. However, it also discusses the model's limitations, including its assumptions, data quality concerns, short-term focus, and neglect of risk premiums. Future research directions are proposed to enhance the model's accuracy and applicability. In conclusion, this essay emphasizes the importance of recognizing both the strengths and weaknesses of the Fisher Effect and the need for ongoing refinement in its application to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape.

show abstract

Section: The Application In Economicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application and Limitation of Fisher Model

Han

2024

HBEM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Here are some examples of studies in the first group with their published years, methodologies, and test results of the J‑curve: Rose and Yellen ( 1989 , the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, no evidence for the J‑curve hypothesis), Marwah and Klein ( 1996 , the OLS model, evidence supporting the J‑curve), Shirvani and Wilbratte ( 1997 , the Johansen and Jusilius cointegration technique, no evidence), Ongan et al. ( 2018 , the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, no evidence), Hsing and Sergi ( 2010 , the vector error correction model, no evidence), Bahmani-Oskooee and Fariditavana ( 2016 , the linear and nonlinear ARDL models, evidence), Kallianiotis ( 2022 , the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, evidence). The second group of empirical studies on the J‑curve used disaggregated trade volumes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The US State-Level Geographic J-curve Hypothesis Mapping with Canada

Ongan,

Gocer,

Karamelikli

2023

Rev Reg Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study creates a US state-level asymmetric J‑curve hypothesis testing map with Canada. The map may visually present how a US state policymaker manages bilateral trade balances with Canada. Green-colored US states support the evidence of the asymmetric J‑curve hypothesis, while red-colored and gray-colored states do not. The main empirical finding indicates that the asymmetric J‑curve hypothesis is supported for only 15 US states and D.C., shown in green on the map. This suggests that policymakers of these US states may have more sustainable and manageable bilateral trade policies with Canada. If so, policymakers in red/grey US states should reevaluate their bilateral trade policy regulations, especially those related to taxation, budgetary frameworks, energy prices, and other relevant factors that can impact consumer-producer prices and thereby create competitive state-level real exchange rates. By doing so, they may achieve the anticipated positive outcomes of the J‑curve effect to export more.

show abstract

“…Shirvani and Wilbratte ( 1997 ) applied the Johansen and Jusilius cointegration technique, and the J-curve was not supported. Ongan et al ( 2018 ) applied the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for the U.S. and found no evidence of the J-curve with Canada. Hsing and Sergi ( 2010 ) used the vector error correction model and found no evidence supporting this hypothesis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food-based bilateral trade balance performances between the United States and Canada under COVID-19

Ongan,

Karamelikli,

Gocer

2023

J Consum Prot Food Saf

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The food industry has been greatly impacted by COVID-19, causing governments to restrict food exports to prevent shortages. A negative food trade balance reveals a country's dependence on imports and underscores the significance of a sound food policy. Hence, for the first time, this study examines the J-curve hypothesis for the U.S. with Canada at the state rather than country level and creates maps based on the findings. The approach of this study differs from all empirical studies using country-level J-curve analyses, because the U.S. may require a state level analysis since its states differ in terms of economic-population sizes, tax rates, and administrative structures. For this aim, this study employs the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches. The results indicate that while only 8 out of 47 U.S. states support the food-based asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, 15 U.S. states support the asymmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Additionally, 9 U.S. states support the food-based symmetric J-curve hypothesis, and 2 U.S. states support the symmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Based on these results, policymakers of U.S. states where the J-curve hypothesis is not supported should review their food-based bilateral trade policies with Canada. Graphical abstract These maps depict the U.S. states in green and red, indicating support for the J-curve and inverse J-curve hypotheses, respectively. The map on the left was generated using the linear model (symmetric approach), while the map on the right was generated using the nonlinear model (asymmetric approach). Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00003-023-01436-x.

show abstract

Testing fisher effect for the USA: application of nonlinear ARDL model

Cited by 6 publications

References 34 publications

Application and Limitation of Fisher Model

Application and Limitation of Fisher Model

The US State-Level Geographic J-curve Hypothesis Mapping with Canada

Food-based bilateral trade balance performances between the United States and Canada under COVID-19

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About