Testing claims about volcanic disruption of a potential geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Abstract

[1] Yucca Mountain is a potential repository site for highlevel radioactive waste. We examine claims that the frequency of future basaltic dike intersection could be 1 Â 10 À6 /yr or higher (i.e., on average, one penetration every million yrs). These claims fail simple tests at four time scales. Spatial-temporal models that predict intrusion frequencies >2 Â 10 À7 /yr are overly pessimistic because no dikes have been found in the 13 Myr-old potential repository footprint. More realistic models are developed by considering this non-detection of dikes and by applying probabilistic hazard assessments based on known patterns of Pleistocene volcanism. Using a hazard assessment code, we estimate the frequency of dike intersection at 5.4 Â 10 À8 /yr with an upper 95% confidence bound of 9.8 Â 10 À8 /yr.

P wave velocity structure in the Yucca Mountain, Nevada, region

“…This may provide a structural explanation for the YM high topography. If the lower basement velocities under Crater Flat are due to weaker, more fractured basement rocks compared to YM, this may provide an explanation for the lack of Quaternary volcanism at YM proper [Coleman et al, 2004]. The Bare Mountain fault could provide a conduit for magma into the upper crust.…”

Marine Climate and Climate Change

“…Before about 1950, VOS data are available mostly along major shipping routes. After that, near-global coverage may be achieved (Gulev and Grigorieva, 2004). The number of available observations varies between about 15 and 20 per region and month in the late 19th century and several thousands after about 1960, implying time-dependent sampling errors (Gulev and Grigorieva, 2004).…”

“…After that, near-global coverage may be achieved (Gulev and Grigorieva, 2004). The number of available observations varies between about 15 and 20 per region and month in the late 19th century and several thousands after about 1960, implying time-dependent sampling errors (Gulev and Grigorieva, 2004). In addition, time-dependent fair-weather biases may occur as ships tend to avoid storm conditions, a behavior that may have changed in the course of time in response to changing ship sizes and/or operation practices.…”

“…In addition, time-dependent fair-weather biases may occur as ships tend to avoid storm conditions, a behavior that may have changed in the course of time in response to changing ship sizes and/or operation practices. Gulev and Grigorieva (2004) analyzed changes in the wave climate from vas reports for 1900-2002 along the major shipping routes (i.e., mainly within the North Atlantic and North Pacific). For the North Pacific Gulev and Grigorieva (2004) reported a positive trend in significant wave height (Section 2.4.2) of about 8 cm-10em per decade over the last century.…”

“…Gulev and Grigorieva (2004) analyzed changes in the wave climate from vas reports for 1900-2002 along the major shipping routes (i.e., mainly within the North Atlantic and North Pacific). For the North Pacific Gulev and Grigorieva (2004) reported a positive trend in significant wave height (Section 2.4.2) of about 8 cm-10em per decade over the last century. For the North Atlantic, they found a negative trend being most pronounced (about 5 cm per decade) within the western part of the North Atlantic storm track.…”