Test of Strain Behavior Model with Radon Anomaly in Seismogenic Area: A Bayesian Melding Approach

Abstract

Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock

Seismic electric signals (SES) and earthquakes: A review of an updated VAN method and competing hypotheses for SES generation and earthquake triggering

“…The DD model describes earthquake nucleation as being caused by strain cracking (dilation), and then fluid motion (diffusion) into the new pore space. The DD model does account for some results, for example, increased radon gas emission (Dutta et al, 2012) and an increase in seismic wave velocity immediately prior to rock failure. It also accounts for the positive correlation between variance in high frequency seismic noise and diurnal ground temperature, as described in Gordeev et al (1992) since variation in surface heating causes diurnal fluctuations in groundwater pressure.…”

Metamorphism & Electricity: Metamorphic Contributions to Electrical Phenomena in the Earth's Crust

“…It describes earthquake nucleation as a process of strain cracking (dilation), and then fluid motion (diffusion) into the new pore space. The dilatancy-diffusion model does perhaps account for some results, for example, increased radon gas emission (Dutta et al, 2012) and an increase in seismic wave velocity immediately prior to rock failure. It also accounts for the positive correlation between variance in high frequency seismic noise and diurnal ground temperature, as described in Gordeev et al (1992), since surface heating causes diurnal fluctuations in groundwater pressure.…”

A Specialized Hardware Based Design for Earthquake Warning Design and Identification of the Sensing Area Module in Remote Areas: A Practical Approach

“…which A i j denote the size of j -covered area after i sensor nodes have been placed in j Y i denote the extra area to the sensor region of i th placed sensor node to the size of j -covered region, P i j is the proportion of Y i j to A i . According to (5) and 6…”