TESS: system for automatic seasonal adjustment and forecasting of time series

Prat, Albert; Gómez, Víctor; Solé, Ignasi; Catot, Josep M.

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-57678-2_52

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 5 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Longterm temperature increases in the western Mediterranean during the second half of the 20th century range between 0.02°C and 0.19°C for deep waters, 0.06°C and 0.38°C for Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) and 0°C and 0.45°C for the upper layers (Vargas-Yáñez et al, 2009). In order to determine and quantify the possible relationships between the time series (of landings or CPUEs) and water temperature, bivariate ARIMA transfer function models (Box-Jenkins modelling strategy) were constructed for each species, using the ForeTESS software package (Prat et al, 2001;Lloret et al, 2001;Appendix S4).…”

Section: Time-series Analysis Of Abundance (Yields) and Water Temperamentioning

confidence: 99%

How a multidisciplinary approach involving ethnoecology, biology and fisheries can help explain the spatio‐temporal changes in marine fish abundance resulting from climate change

Lloret

Sabatés

Muñoz

et al. 2014

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Predicting the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems or how fish and other species are adapting to rising sea temperatures is still subject to much uncertainty, despite considerable progress in recent years. In this study we assess whether our understanding of the impact of sea warming on marine fish can be enhanced with an interdisciplinary approach that collates data from fisheries, fishermen and scientific research. By doing this, we aim to shed light on the major changes in the abundance and diversity of warm and cold water fish in recent decades in relation to sea warming. Location: This study was conducted in the north-western Mediterranean, where the impacts of global warming are particularly critical because range shifts are physically constrained. Methods: We collected and combined statistical data from fisheries, the traditional ecological knowledge of fishermen (TEK), reproductive data (histological gonad analyses and ichthyoplankton surveys) and extensive research into the relevant literature (including systematic catalogues and museum collections and their databases). Results: We have found that changes in the abundance of fish have followed a particular spatio-temporal sequence, with three different phases of colonization in the case of warm-water species (occasional occurrence, common presence and establishment), and three phases of regression (abundance reduction, range contraction and disappearance from the catch) in the case of cold-water species. Main conclusions: Overall, the results show that this multidisciplinary approach, combining qualitative and quantitative information from different sources, provides new insight into the observed changes in fish diversity and abundance in relation to climate changeThis study was financed by the Abertis Foundation (http://www.fundacioabertis.org/). In addition, J.L. benefited from a Ramon y Cajal Research contract from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. A.S. was partially supported by the project MAR-CTM2010-1887

show abstract

Section: Time-series Analysis Of Abundance (Yields) and Water Temperamentioning

confidence: 99%

How a multidisciplinary approach involving ethnoecology, biology and fisheries can help explain the spatio‐temporal changes in marine fish abundance resulting from climate change

Lloret

Sabatés

Muñoz

et al. 2014

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The time series of landings were described by calculating the seasonal component using the decomposition method TRAMO-SEATS by means of multiple moving averages. The time series statistical package ForeTESS (Prat et al, 2010) was used to build univariate ARIMA models (autoregressive-integrated-moving-average) (Box & Jenkins, 1976) for landings on a monthly basis in order to explore the spectral peaks at seasonal frequencies (i.e. the seasonal value of a given month is the percentage above and below the annual mean landings).…”

Section: S Tat I S T I C a L A Na Ly S E Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Life‐history traits of temperate and thermophilic barracudas (Teleostei: Sphyraenidae) in the context of sea warming in the Mediterranean Sea

Villegas‐Hernández

Muñoz

Lloret

2014

Journal of Fish Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study indicated that the life-history traits of European barracuda Sphyraena sphyraena are apparently better suited to their environmental conditions compared to the more physically restricted life-history traits of the yellow-mouth barracuda Sphyraena viridensis, which co-habit the north-western Mediterranean Sea. The latter thermophilic species has a considerably higher reproductive potential as it invests its energy reserves in larger numbers of hydrated eggs per spawning batch. This would favour its population growth rates within the study area, especially if sea warming continues, in which case it is likely that the spawning phenology of this species would give it an advantage.

show abstract

“…We used the decomposition method ‘tramo‐seats’ which is included in the software package ForeTESS developed by the Polytechnical University of Catalonia (Prat et al. , 2001).…”

Section: Description Of the Time Series: Analysis Of Trend And Seasonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, we compared the environmental conditions only during the spawning seasons with the landings obtained afterwards. Transfer function models were built following the Box and Jenkins’ modelling strategy (Box and Jenkins, 1976; ) using the software package ForeTESS (Prat et al. , 2001).…”

Section: Transfer Function Analyses Between Landings and Environmentamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of freshwater input and wind on landings of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in shelf waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River delta (north‐western Mediterranean)

Lloret¹,

Palomera²,

Salat³

et al. 2004

Fisheries Oceanography

168

155

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Time series analyses (Box–Jenkins models) were used to study the influence of river runoff and wind mixing index on the productivity of the two most abundant species of small pelagic fish exploited in waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River continental shelf (north‐western Mediterranean): anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus). River flow and wind were selected because they are known to enhance fertilization and local planktonic production, thus being crucial for the survival of fish larvae. Time series of the two environmental variables and landings of the two species were analysed to extract the trend and seasonality. All series displayed important seasonal and interannual fluctuations. In the long term, landings of anchovy declined while those of sardine increased. At the seasonal scale, landings of anchovy peaked during spring/summer while those of sardine peaked during spring and autumn. Seasonality in landings of anchovy was stronger than in sardine. Concerning the environmental series, monthly average Ebre runoff showed a progressive decline from 1960 until the late 1980s, and the wind mixing index was highest during 1994–96. Within the annual cycle, the minimum river flow occurs from July to October and the wind mixing peaks in winter (December–April, excluding January). The results of the analyses showed a significant correlation between monthly landings of anchovy and freshwater input of the Ebre River during the spawning season of this species (April–August), with a time lag of 12 months. In contrast, monthly landings of sardine were significantly positively correlated with the wind mixing index during the spawning season of this species (November–March), with a lag of 18 months. The results provide evidence of the influence of riverine inputs and wind mixing on the productivity of small pelagic fish in the north‐western Mediterranean. The time lags obtained in the relationships stress the importance of river runoff and wind mixing for the early stages of anchovy and sardine, respectively, and their impact on recruitment.

show abstract

TESS: system for automatic seasonal adjustment and forecasting of time series

Cited by 6 publications

References 5 publications

How a multidisciplinary approach involving ethnoecology, biology and fisheries can help explain the spatio‐temporal changes in marine fish abundance resulting from climate change

How a multidisciplinary approach involving ethnoecology, biology and fisheries can help explain the spatio‐temporal changes in marine fish abundance resulting from climate change

Life‐history traits of temperate and thermophilic barracudas (Teleostei: Sphyraenidae) in the context of sea warming in the Mediterranean Sea

Impact of freshwater input and wind on landings of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in shelf waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River delta (north‐western Mediterranean)

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About