Terrorism Risk

Abstract

Terrorism risk emerged as a quantitative modeling discipline after 9/11. This article describes methods that have been developed for modeling the terrorism risk from Islamist militants. While the damage wrought by a terrorist attack is amenable to engineering loss analysis, the terrorist modus operandi is a function of human behavior, and hence requires special methods drawn from fields such as game theory, social psychology, and network analysis. In order to analyze the global terrorist threat from Islamist militants, a coherent global perspective is required that tracks the radicalization of Muslim diaspora communities.

Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Risk Management

“…Intelligence officers can assess quite well the terrorism threat (Woo 2010), but are no better capable of predicting a terrorist attack than seismologists can predict an earthquake. In the United Kingdom, the terrorist threat color-code level was lowered shortly before the 7 July 2005 London transport bombing.…”

Detection of Pathogens in Water Using Micro and Nano-Technology

“…They follow principles of human behaviour, and can be analysed by methods from social psychology, game theory, and network analysis (Leson, 2005;Rios, 2010). Woo (2008) models the terrorists' target selection process with these rules: Terrorist usually choose weapon modes and targets, against which the technical, logistical and security barriers to mission success are least.…”