Terror attacks, issue salience, and party competence: Diagnosing shifting vote preferences in a panel study

Abstract

How does a dramatic shift in political context that renders security concerns the most salient electoral issue influences voting? To address this question, we take advantage of the peculiar timing of elections and heightened terror attacks in Turkey with the use of original panel data. The June 2015 Turkish general election resulted in a hung parliament, and a snap election was held in November. While the period before June was relatively calm, the inter-election period witnessed an upsurge of terror attacks and casualties. A three-wave panel enables us to track how voters’ electoral preferences changed over this period. Our analyses suggest that the terror attacks led voters to prioritize parties’ perceived competence in addressing security concerns at the ballot box. The abrupt change in issue salience has bolstered support for the incumbent Justice and Development Party which was evaluated by voters as more competent than other parties.

COVID-19, Security Threats and Public Opinions

“…They argue that the most likely mechanism at play is the presence of a forward-looking perspective, in which voters support the party they consider most capable of helping them. Taken together, the two studies support the view that unexpected threats to life and safety increase support for incumbent governments, both at the national and local level (see e.g., Aytaç and Çarkoğlu 2019).…”

Partisanship, elite messages, and support for populism in power

“…The restriction around the religious headscarf of women, for instance, was one of the primary sources of resentment among the conservative masses when AKP came to power (Çarkoğlu 2010). 4 The AKP gradually lifted these restrictions, and survey data show that a large majority of voters consider this as one of the most successful policy achievements of the party (Aytaç and Çarkoğlu 2015). In addition to delivering to their constituency on religious freedoms, the AKP also appears to have been apt at providing targeted economic benefits to its support base.…”

The construction of threats by intelligence agencies: analysing the language of official documents in Slovakia

“…Another structural change in the threat infrastructure is a significant shift in the security landscape in a specific country, such as a terrorist attack. Such a shift affects the prioritisation of the perceived competence of political actors in addressing security concerns and leads to greater political support for those actors (Aytac and Carkoglu 2019).…”