Territorial long-term forecasting of hydrological characteristics of spring floods of lowland rivers

Shakirzanova, Zh. R.; Dokus, Anhelina

doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-85045-2.00020-0

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Of course, early warning about future floods is the paramount importance for this area, both in view of the timely implementation of flood control measures, and to improve the efficiency of the operation of hydropower and other water facilities (Romashchenko and Savchuk, 2002;Gorbachova, 2012). In the world, modern hydrological services are using computer simulation systems for river runoff forecasting, which are based on a hydrological model that works automatically using weather forecast (WMO, 2009;Roelevink et al, 2010;Gorbachova, 2012;Shakirzanova et al, 2019). Today in Ukraine such a modern direction is insufficiently developed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Today in Ukraine such a modern direction is insufficiently developed. In Ukraine, a lot of scientific developments in hydrological forecasting use methodological achievements that were formed in the 60-70s of the twentieth century (Susidko, 2000;Luk'yanets, 2004;Priymachenko, 2010;Susidko et al, 2011;Dutko and Sosedko, 2011;Moskalenko, 2012;Khrystyuk, 2014;Shakirzanova et al, 2019). This applies to the development of methods for short-term forecasting of floods in the Dniester River Basin, which were started at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (UHMI) in the 70s of last century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Verification of the automated flood forecasting system on the Stryi River

Khrystiuk¹,

Gorbachova²,

Shpyg³

2022

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The physical and geographical location of the Stryi River Basin causes the formation of catastrophic floods, which are regularly forming in this region and cause significant material damage and, sometimes, the death of people. The last catastrophic flood took place on the Stryi River in June 2020. Thus, the creation of a modern system for forecasting the streamflow of the Stryi River is a very important task. This paper describes such an automated flood forecasting system (FFS Stryi) that is developed at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The basis of the system is the hydrological module NAM of the Rainfall-Runoff software complex MIKE 11 (Denmark), which uses the forecasted weather parameters from the numerical mesoscale atmospheric model WRF ARW v. 3.6.1 (USA). The objective of this study is to verify this system and identify the factors that affect the accuracy of flood forecasting of the Stryi River. The system of streamflow forecasting of the Stryi River uses the continuous series of calculated (historical) levels and discharges, air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, as well as the forecast of meteorological indicators for 5 days. The system is set to work with a three-hour time step in the automatic regime. Verification of FFS Stryi according to the historical meteorological data showed that the system reproduces the streamflow of the Stryi River with satisfactory quality. The accuracy of discharge forecasting depends on the accuracy of weather parameters forecasting and, above all, the quantity of precipitation and the time of their falling out. Errors of hydrological forecasting are caused by an imperfect hydrometeorological network of observations (number of points and frequency of measurement), a digital model of the relief of the Stryi River basin and errors of weather parameters forecasts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of the automated flood forecasting system on the Stryi River

Khrystiuk¹,

Gorbachova²,

Shpyg³

2022

ahs

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“…Методи дослідження. Об'єм літньо-осіннього меженного стоку (середня витрата води) за деякий проміжок часу (або період) 𝛥𝑡, який перевищує максимальний час добігання води 𝜏 𝑚𝑎𝑥 по руслах річок можна представити рівнянням [54] Q𝛥𝑡 =QГ𝛥𝑡 + QД𝛥𝑡 +𝑊 𝑡 0 , У зв'язку з цим для прогнозів меженного стоку рівняння (1) і (2) не можуть бути використані безпосередньо. Тому в практиці гідрологічних прогнозів будуються емпіричні кореляційні залежності меженного стоку від факторів, які його визначають, зазвичай побудови графічного зв'язку між стоком або рівнем води поточного моменту часу та стоком або рівнем декілька днів тому.…”

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“…Так, для прогнозу меженного стоку (наприклад, середніх витрат води за період (або проміжок часу) 𝛥𝑡) зони недостатнього зволоження, якою є досліджувана територія України, при невеликій кількості опадів або малої змінності їх кількості у літньо-осінній період найбільш часто використовуються залежності вигляду [54]:…”

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“…Такі прогностичні залежності, встановлюються для конкретної річки за даними багаторічних спостережень для окремих місяців літньоосіннього і зимового періодів. Точність прогнозів при цьому буде тим вища, чим менший вплив дощів на стік меженного періоду, тобто для річок з незначною долею дощового стоку і для великих річок лісостепової та степової географічних зон [54]. При необхідності врахування поверхневого дощового стоку в прогнозах середньодекадних витрат води головні труднощі полягають не тільки в складності розрахунку дощового стоку, а й обмежених можливостей прогнозу опадів з великою завчасністю.…”

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Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

Shakirzanova

Ovcharuk

Dokus

et al. 2022

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The aim of the study is to substantiate the probabilistic-forecasting method for forecasting the low flow discharge and its implementation for the Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area and Lower Dnieper rivers, taking into account climatic patterns of precipitation distribution and establishing probabilistic characteristics of low flow discharge in multi-year period. The study area is in a zone of significant risk due to the shortage of water resources, the formation of extremely low runoff in the dry flow period, which requires its definition and forecasting. The methodological basis of forecasts is to solve the equation in determining the components of the low flow of rivers by constructing regional dependences for forecasting the average decade summer-autumn low flow from previous water discharge (in runoff modules), establishing their probabilities water discharge for a number of intakes. Results. The paper substantiates the probabilistic-forecasting method for forecasting low flow discharge (in summer, autumn and winter periods) based on the construction of regional dependences of average decadal runoff modules on previous water discharge for groups of basins of studied rivers taking into account climatic dependences of precipitation distribution in the territory and the establishment of probabilistic characteristics of the low flow water discharge in a multi-year period. The methodology of territorial short-term forecasts of average decade water discharge of low flow of summer, autumn and winter river runoff is assessed as satisfactory with a margin of error of 70 % to 97 %, with a number of members of more than 500 points. To determine the cumulative probability of the forecast values of the average decade water discharge of the summer, autumn and winter dry weather flow, the empirical distribution of the average monthly water discharge in the limited seasons, which are generalized in the basins of the studied rivers of Ukraine, is established. Scientific novelty. For the first time for the zone of insufficient natural water content of rivers the method of territorial forecasts of low flow discharge, determination of their probability of occurrence in a multi-year period and cartographic representation of prognostic values have been developed and practically implemented. The practical importance is the use of forecast modules maps of low flow for spatial monitoring and assessment of low water levels on rivers in the whole region, including ungauged rivers, and their probabilistic characteristics – to assess the possible occurrence of low runoff, even when it reaches values close to the environmental runoff, which are critical for the functioning of the river ecosystem.

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