Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity Loss under Future Global Land Use Change Scenarios

Chaudhary, Abhishek; Mooers, Arne Ø.

doi:10.3390/su10082764

Cited by 53 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(104 reference statements)

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“…Our estimates of the impact of land-use change on plant biodiversity are in broad agreement with those for vertebrate biodiversity based on a different SAR-based approach(Chaudhary & Mooers, 2018). Our estimates of the impact of land-use change on plant biodiversity are in broad agreement with those for vertebrate biodiversity based on a different SAR-based approach(Chaudhary & Mooers, 2018).…”

supporting

confidence: 72%

“…It is important to clarify that this method, as for any other SARbased approach (Chaudhary & Mooers, 2018;Pereira & Daily, 2006), does not estimate the proportion of species that will go extinct within a specified time frame. Rather, the approach estimates the proportion of species which are expected to persist or become extinct over the long term, as a consequence of the climate and land-use conditions observed or predicted at a specified time point.…”

Section: Projecting Biodiversity Persistence Under Landuse and Climmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…keeping with recommendations(Buckland, Studeny, Magurran, Illian, & Newson, 2011) regarding the appropriateness of this approach when aggregating relative, or proportional, measures of change across multiple elements of biodiversity.It is important to clarify that this method, as for any other SARbased approach(Chaudhary & Mooers, 2018;Pereira & Daily, 2006), does not estimate the proportion of species that will go extinct within a specified time frame. Rather, the approach estimates the proportion of species which are expected to persist or become extinct over the long term, as a consequence of the climate and land-use conditions observed or predicted at a specified time point.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Marco

Harwood

Hoskins

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed.

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supporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Projecting Biodiversity Persistence Under Landuse and Climmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Marco

Harwood

Hoskins

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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“…For example, it has been found that agricultural exports from the Philippines to the United States rank eighth in terms of largest embodied biodiversity impacts globally (Chaudhary & Kastner, 2016). Bird extinction risks in the Philippines are also high due to tropical wood exports, and forests in Palawan island in particular are at high risk for biodiversity loss (Nishijima et al, 2016;Chaudhary & Mooers, 2018). These threats to biodiversity mean that the Philippines has significant challenges to meet increases in biomass demand without putting even higher strains on the ecosystems, particularly in light of population growth and dietary changes (Kastner & Nonhebel, 2010).…”

Section: Philippine Biodiversity Agriculture and Land-usementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the future, the combined effects of both agricultural intensification and expansion will have serious consequences for biodiversity (e.g. Chaudhary & Mooers, 2018;Kehoe et al, 2017;Delzeit et al, 2017). One of the ways to mitigate habitat loss and its negative effects is forest conservation.…”

Section: Impacts Of Intensive Agriculture On the Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impacts of agriculture and its trade on Philippine biodiversity

Ortiz

Torres²

2019

Preprint

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The Philippines is home to a high number of unique species that can be found nowhere else in the world. However, its unique species and ecosystems are at high risk because of habitat loss and degradation. Agricultural land use and land use change are major drivers of biodiversity loss in the Philippines.In the Philippines, an important area that requires focus is plantation agriculture (monocropping) for high-value crops such as banana and pineapple, which are grown widely in the country, particularly in the island of Mindanao. The intensive nature of plantation agriculture means that it has many adverse effects on the environment while producing goods and commodities that are typically for trade and export with international partners. This means that local biodiversity losses may be driven by countries thousands of kilometers away.While many global studies have attempted to understand how biodiversity impacts are embodied within agricultural goods, there are few studies that have investigated the Philippines specifically. In this study, local and national-scale data are investigated to better characterize the nexus between agriculture, biodiversity, and trade in the Philippine context.Based on geographical data, many banana and pineapple plantations and their buffer zones interact and overlap with areas that are high in biodiversity, such as Protected Areas and Important Bird Areas. In this study, data shows that 82 threatened species, including the critically endangered Philippine eagle, are at risk of exposure to agricultural activities from high-value crops banana and pineapple. An additional and important political and legal analysis is also undertaken in the study to reveal key legislation and enabling environments relevant to the interactions between land use and biodiversity. More stringent definitions and protections for biodiversity are recommended to recognize the increasing role that agricultural production, and importantly, its global trade, has on threatened Philippine species and habitats.

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On the shape and origins of the freshwater species–area relationship

Passy

Mruzek

Budnick

et al. 2023

Ecology

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The species–area relationship (SAR) has over a 150‐year‐long history in ecology, but how its shape and origins vary across scales and organisms remains incompletely understood. This is the first subcontinental freshwater study to examine both these properties of the SAR in a spatially explicit way across major organismal groups (diatoms, insects, and fish) that differ in body size and dispersal capacity. First, to describe the SAR shape, we evaluated the fit of three commonly used models, logarithmic, power, and Michaelis–Menten. Second, we proposed a hierarchical framework to explain the variability in the SAR shape, captured by the parameters of the SAR model. According to this framework, scale and species group were the top predictors of the SAR shape, climatic factors (heterogeneity and median conditions) represented the second predictor level, and metacommunity properties (intraspecific spatial aggregation, γ‐diversity, and species abundance distribution) the third predictor level. We calculated the SAR as a sample‐based rarefaction curve using 60 streams within landscape windows (scales) in the United States, ranging from 160,000 to 6,760,000 km2. First, we found that all models provided good fits (R2 ≥ 0.93), but the frequency of the best‐fitting model was strongly dependent on organism, scale, and metacommunity properties. The Michaelis–Menten model was most common in fish, at the largest scales, and at the highest levels of intraspecific spatial aggregation. The power model was most frequent in diatoms and insects, at smaller scales, and in metacommunities with the lowest evenness. The logarithmic model fit best exclusively at the smallest scales and in species‐poor metacommunities, primarily fish. Second, we tested our framework with the parameters of the most broadly used SAR model, the log–log form of the power model, using a structural equation model. This model supported our framework and revealed that the SAR slope was best predicted by scale‐ and organism‐dependent metacommunity properties, particularly spatial aggregation, whereas the intercept responded most strongly to species group and γ‐diversity. Future research should investigate from the perspective of our framework how shifts in metacommunity properties due to climate change may alter the SAR.

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Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity Loss under Future Global Land Use Change Scenarios

Cited by 53 publications

References 59 publications

Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Assessing the impacts of agriculture and its trade on Philippine biodiversity

On the shape and origins of the freshwater species–area relationship

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