Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Capra, Lucía; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Saucedo, R.

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2011.03.006

Cited by 36 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Barberi et al 1990;Barsotti et al 2015;Bonadonna et al 2002;Bonasia et al 2011;Capra et al 2008;Costa et al 2009;Hill et al 1998;Jenkins et al 2015;Macedonio et al 2008;Scaini et al 2012;Scollo et al 2008;Sieron et al 2014). However, the eruption source parameters of the considered reference scenario are commonly kept fixed an their variability and uncertainty are rarely taken into account.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of eruption source parameter variation and meteorological dataset on tephra fallout hazard assessment: example from Vesuvius (Italy)

et al. 2016

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In this study, using the tephra dispersal model HAZMAP, we investigate the effect of using different meteorological datasets and eruption source parameters on tephra fallout hazard assessment for a sub-Plinian eruption of Vesuvius, which is considered as a reference case for hazard assessment analysis. We analyze the effect of using different meteorological data, from: i) radio-sounding carried out at the meteorological station of Brindisi (Italy) between 1962 and 1976 and between 1996 and 2012, and at Pratica di Mare (Rome, Italy) between 1995 and 2013; ii) meteorological models of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, we consider the effects of perturbing reference eruptive source parameters. In particular, we vary the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the column height, and the effective atmospheric diffusion coefficient to evaluate how these parameters affect the hazard probability maps. Moreover, the effect of the seasonal variation of the wind field and the effect of the rain on the deposit loading are considered. Results show that the parameter that mostly affects hazard maps is, as expected, the total erupted mass; furthermore, keeping constant the erupted mass, the most important control on hazard is due to the particle terminal settling velocity distribution which is a function of the total grain-size distribution, particle density and shape. Within the considered range variations, the hazard depends less on the use of different meteorological datasets, column height and effective diffusion coefficient.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of eruption source parameter variation and meteorological dataset on tephra fallout hazard assessment: example from Vesuvius (Italy)

et al. 2016

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“…Aggregation processes are known to modify deposition trends along the dispersal axis by aggregating fine particles (typically < 100 µm) into larger clusters (Brown et al, 2012;Rose and Durant, 2011). The aggregation of fine particles into larger aggregates results in premature sedimentation in the proximal area and in a relative depletion of fines away from the vent (Carey and Sigurdsson, 1982;Hildreth and Drake, 1992), possibly leading to an underestimation of the hazard in proximal areas and an overestimation in distal sectors.…”

Section: Ash Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although aggregation is a topic of intense research, no satisfactory parameterization of this process has been achieved yet (e.g. Brown et al, 2012;Costa et al, 2010;Van Eaton and Wilson, 2013;Van Eaton et al, 2012). Several models attempt to describe aggregation processes using either empirical (Bonadonna and Phillips, 2003;Carey and Sigurdsson, 1982;Cornell et al, 1983) or numerical approaches .…”

Section: Ash Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment

Biass¹,

Scaini²,

Bonadonna³

et al. 2014

Preprint

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Abstract. In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future volcanic eruptions in Iceland, we developed a new approach to assess the hazard associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. The target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected either for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impacts. By coupling tephrostratigraphic studies, probabilistic techniques and modelling, we developed comprehensive eruption scenarios for both short and long lasting eruptions and compiled hazard maps for tephra ground deposition at a national scale and air concentration at a European scale using the TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models, respectively. New algorithms for the identification of realistic sets of eruptive source parameters are investigated, which assist the generation of probability density functions of eruption source parameters for the selected scenarios. Aggregation processes were accounted for using various empirical models. Outcomes help assessing and comparing hazard levels at different scales. For example, at a national scale Askja has a 5–10% probability of blanketing the easternmost half of the country with a tephra accumulation of at least 1kg m-2. At a continental scale, Katla has a 5–10% probability of producing ash clouds with concentrations of 2 mg m-3 over the UK, Scandinavia and northern Europe with a mean arrival time of 48–72 h and a mean persistence time of 6–18 h. In a companion paper, Scaini et al. (2014) present a vulnerability assessment for Iceland to ground deposition of tephra and for the European air traffic to airborne ash which, combined with the outcomes of the present paper, constitute one of the first multi-scale risk assessment associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation.

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“…Tephra dispersal during explosive volcanic eruptions and its consequent deposition can produce multiple hazardous effects, such as damage to human settlements, agriculture, and transportation systems [Blong, 1984;Casadevall, 1994;Sparks et al, 1997;Miller and Casadevall, 2000;Horwell and Baxter, 2006]. Although the modelistic aspects of the tephra dispersion are well explored, as well as some application for the long-term assessment [e.g., Barberi et al, 1990;Cioni et al, 2003;Bonadonna et al, 2005;Magill et al, 2006;Macedonio et al, 2008;Bonasia et al, 2011Bonasia et al, , 2012, the short-term tephra hazard analysis is still in its infancy. Besides the paramount importance in assisting decision makers during volcanic unrest in high-risk zone like in Neapolitan area, the recent disruption to civil aviation over Europe caused by the Eyjafjallajökull eruption [e.g., Bonadonna et al, 2012;Folch et al, 2012] and the repeated closures of the Catania airport caused by the Etna activity highlight the importance to build reliable and flexible models of short-term hazard assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic short‐term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

et al. 2014

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During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short‐term volcanic hazard), for short‐term near‐real‐time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short‐term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short‐term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.

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Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)

Cited by 36 publications

References 23 publications

Effects of eruption source parameter variation and meteorological dataset on tephra fallout hazard assessment: example from Vesuvius (Italy)

Effects of eruption source parameter variation and meteorological dataset on tephra fallout hazard assessment: example from Vesuvius (Italy)

A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment

Probabilistic short‐term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

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