Predicting the spread of invasive species is a challenge for modern
ecology. Although many invasive species undergo genetic bottlenecks
during introduction to new areas resulting in a loss of genetic
diversity, successful invaders manage to flourish in novel environments
either because of pre-adaptations or because important traits contain
adaptive variation enabling rapid adaptation to changing conditions. To
predict and understand invasion success, it is crucial to analyse these
features. We assessed the potential of a well-known invader, the
Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata), to expand north of
its current range in Europe. A short growing season and harsh
overwintering conditions are apparent limiting factors for this species'
range. By rearing full-sib families from four geographically distinct
populations (Russia, Estonia, Poland, Italy) at two fluctuating
temperature regimes, we investigated (a) possible differences in
survival, development time, and body size among populations and (b) the
amount of adaptive variation within populations in these traits. All
populations were able to complete their development in cooler conditions
than in their current range. A significant genotype-environment
interaction for development time and body size suggests the presence of
adaptive genetic variation, indicating potential to adapt to cooler
conditions. The northernmost population had the highest survival rates
and fastest development times on both temperature regimes, suggesting
pre-adaptation to cooler temperatures. Other populations had minor
differences in development times. Interestingly, this species lacks the
classical trade-off between body size and development time which could
have contributed to its invasion potential. This study demonstrates the
importance of considering both ecological and evolutionary aspects when
assessing invasion risk