Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab214

Cited by 95 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…Research shows that biodiversity adaptability to increased temperatures is somewhat limited and that their first response to changing climatic conditions is a shift in location [57], with migration patterns often being slower than changes in climatic conditions [58]. Overall, human adaptability to temperature extremes has improved over the past decades [59,60], but further research is needed to compare the speed of human adaptability with that of climate shift and to characterize context-specific limits of human adaptability [61,62]. A faster shift of extremes as compared to the normals would have implied specific adaptation issues.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting velocity of temperature extremes under climate change

Rey

Rohat

Perroud

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate extremes can lead to increased stress on human and natural systems, and a tendency for serious adverse effects. We rely on the EURO-CORDEX simulations and focus on the the screen-level daily mean temperature (T2m). We compare the shifting velocities of the cold and hot extremes with these of the associated central trends, i.e. the arithmetical mean or median. We define the extremes relative to the T2m distribution as it evolves with time over the period of 1951-2100. We find that temperature extremes shift at a similar velocity compared to that of the central trends. Accordingly, the T2m probability distribution shifts mostly as a whole, as the tails of the distribution increase together with the central trends. Exceptions occur however in specific regions and for the clustering of warm days, which shifts slower than all other extremes investigated in this study.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting velocity of temperature extremes under climate change

Rey

Rohat

Perroud

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Research suggests that biodiversity adaptability to increased temperatures is somewhat limited and that their first response to changing climatic conditions is a shift in location [58], with migration patterns often being slower than changes in climatic conditions [59]. Overall, human adaptability to temperature extremes has been increasing over the past decades [60,61], but further research is needed to compare the speed of human adaptability with that of climate shift and to characterize contextspecific limits of human adaptability [62,63].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting velocity of temperature extremes under climate change

Rey¹,

Rohat²,

Perroud³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate extremes can lead to increased stress on human and natural systems, and a tendency for serious adverse effects. Relying on the EURO-CORDEX simulations, we compare the shifting velocities of cold and hot extremes of the screen-level daily mean temperature (T2m), with that of the associated central trends, i.e., the arithmetical mean or median. Defi?ning the extremes relative to the T2m distribution as it evolves in time over the period of 1950-2100, we ?find that temperature extremes shift at a velocity similar to that of the central trends. Indeed, the T2m probability distribution shifts as a whole, as the tails of the distribution increase together with the central trends. Exceptions however occur in specifi?c regions and for the clustering of warm days, which shifts slower than all other extremes investigated in this study.

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“…So in certain areas of high density where gentrification might become an issue, alterations to houses themselves might be preferred as a more equitable adaptation strategy. As it is, high levels of heat stress in the Philippines may aggravate climate injustice since the burden of climate change will be felt most by the poorest segment of the city [12,67] especially if exacerbated by green inequality from poor policies and urban planning [68].…”

Section: Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most climate change impact research in tropical non-OECD countries has concentrated on the effects of extreme weather events such as floods and typhoons, particularly on rural communities, rather than increases in heat. Based on our results, more research on the urban impacts of heat and adaptation is warranted, particularly in developing countries [68]. This is particularly true for the Philippines, where the number of people in urban areas is predicted to double from 50 to 100 million by 2050, by which time about 65% of the national population is expected to live in cities [35].…”

Section: Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%