Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation

Köyceğiz, Cihangir; Büyükyıldız, Meral

doi:10.5505/pajes.2019.86658

Cited by 13 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Finally, the assessment of increasing or decreasing trend is made visually. If the points representing the data are equally distributed in both triangle regions, it is interpreted that there is no trend (Figure 3) (Köyceğiz and Büyükyıldız, 2023). Fig.…”

Section: Trend Analysis With Combination Of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter...mentioning

confidence: 99%

WITHDRAWN: The evaluation of monthly precipitation and average temperature by using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches: Palu station example

Acar

2023

Preprint

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Climate change occurring worldwide due to global warming affects rainfall, flow, humidity and temperature, etc. in many regions. It has begun to significantly change the regimes of hydro-meteorological parameters. It is extremely important to analyze the future changes of these parameters, which significantly affect the management of water resources, ecosystems and agricultural activities. In this study, the temporal variability of monthly total precipitation (1965–2012) and monthly average temperature (1965–2020) data of Palu station located within the borders of Elazığ province in Turkey was investigated. Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman's Rho (SR) test statistics were used to statistically determine the trends of temperature and precipitation data. In addition to these methods, analyzes were carried out with three innovative trend methods that are capable of interpreting trends both statistically and visually. These innovative trend methods are Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA), Innovative Şen Test (Şen-ITA) and trend analysis with the combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram (CWTSD). In addition, precipitation and temperature data were subjected to regression analysis separately and sets of equations were obtained and the decrease-increase amounts were determined in mm and ⸰C. In particular, the IPTA method was applied separately for the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, and the transitions between the increasing and decreasing regions of the trends on a monthly basis were determined and the slopes and lengths of the trends resulting from these transitions were calculated. With the application of the IPTA method, an increasing trend in some months and a decreasing trend in other months were detected for the two parameters. In addition, when the results of precipitation and temperature data were examined, it was seen that there was no single or regular polygon in the IPTA graphs, so both parameters varied over the years and did not exhibit a homogeneous behavior. In the MK test, SR test, Wilcoxon test statistics, Şen-ITA and NO-ITA methods, apart from some months in which increasing and decreasing trends were detected, months in which no trend could be detected, that is, there was no trend, were also observed. When the results obtained from the analysis of two parameters from the relatively new CWTSD method are examined, they show strong consistency with the results of the MK test, SR test and Şen-ITA methods. Advantages such as performing numerical and visual trend analysis with the CWTSD method and determining the trends of data with low-medium-high values have shown that this method can be used as an alternative to the MK test, SR test and Şen-ITA methods that are widely used in the literature. Finally, the IPTA method was evaluated to be more sensitive in determining trends on a monthly basis compared to other methods used in the study..

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Section: Trend Analysis With Combination Of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter...mentioning

confidence: 99%

WITHDRAWN: The evaluation of monthly precipitation and average temperature by using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches: Palu station example

Acar

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Mann-Kendall trend analysis is the most widely used statistical trend method [16][17][18]. The Innovative Şen Trend method, on the other hand, is a method that has been used for about ten years in the analysis of the variability of hydrometeorological parameters and offers the opportunity to evaluate trends both graphically and statistically [18][19][20][21][22]. In recent years, innovative graphical trend methods have been used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Innovative Trend Analysis Methods for Hydrometeorological Parameters in the Karasu Sub-Basin

KÖYCEĞİZ,

BÜYÜKYILDIZ

2023

KONJES

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Türkiye, which has a complex climate structure, is shown among the countries that will be most affected by climate change with the effect of global warming. These effects will differ in different regions due to their topographic structure, location, and orographic characteristics. Trend analyzes are used to determine the direction and magnitude of this variability. In this study, trend analysis was carried out by using hydrometeorological data obtained from streamflow and meteorology stations located in the Karasu Sub-Basin located in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Three innovative trend methods, namely the Şen-Innovative Trend Analysis, Onyutha Trend Test, Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram trend tests, were used together with the classical Mann-Kendall method in the monthly scale analysis of hydrometeorological data of the 1979-2020 period. Both graphical and statistical trend analysis can be done with innovative methods. The results obtained in the study, in which trend analyses were evaluated at the α=0.05 significance level, reveal significant and insignificant decreasing trends in the parameters of mean streamflow, maximum precipitation, total precipitation, mean and minimum relative humidity. Significant and insignificant increasing trends were determined in the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature, maximum relative humidity, and mean wind speed data. The trends obtained in the methods used in general are consistent with each other. The findings of this study could lead to a better knowledge of the region's hydrology and contribute sustainable water management. The trend analysis methods used in the study are thought to be quite helpful in the analysis of hydro-meteorological time series.

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Standardized Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis for Climate Change Assessment (S-IPTA)

Alashan,

Abu Arra,

Şişman

2024

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Research and applications on trend analysis have recently been on the agenda and are top priorities in many disciplines due to the effects of climate change. After a thorough evaluation of the literature, it is noted that different hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, etc., are studied and analyzed individually. This research proposes a new innovative polygon trend analysis application (S-IPTA) using the standardization concept to fill this gap in classical trend applications and comprehensively compare the trends of different variables to temporal and spatial patterns. Firstly, using statistical standardization, S-IPTA adjusts the original data sets and makes them dimensionless. Then, the innovative trend analyses are conducted and interpreted on one single graph (S-IPTA). The S-IPTA methodology is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature time series of Konya Basin in Türkiye at ten meteorological stations between 1959 and 2022. For precipitation, the S-IPTA did not exhibit a consistent polygon across all stations within the study area, while the temperature polygon was more regular, indicating that the temperature mean was generally stable with a positive trend. Also, S-IPTA shows the difference between the average value for each month and the newly proposed long-term average value (0). S-IPTA also provides a basis for a better interpretation of climate change and its effects by providing a common denominator for various trend characteristics, such as trend magnitudes and trend transitions in different hydro-meteorological time series.

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Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation

Cited by 13 publications

References 10 publications

WITHDRAWN: The evaluation of monthly precipitation and average temperature by using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches: Palu station example

WITHDRAWN: The evaluation of monthly precipitation and average temperature by using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches: Palu station example

Comparison of Innovative Trend Analysis Methods for Hydrometeorological Parameters in the Karasu Sub-Basin

Standardized Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis for Climate Change Assessment (S-IPTA)

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