Temporal-Spatial Variation of Drought Indicated by SPI and SPEI in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Tan, Chunping; Yang, Jianping; Li, Man

doi:10.3390/atmos6101399

Cited by 180 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…A comparison study of the SPI and SPEI indices at 9-and 12-month time scales reported in Paulo et al [29] found that SPI and SPEI produced similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. On the other hand, analysis of SPI and SPEI by Tan et al [3] suggested that SPEI is instead more applicable than SPI for exploring the spatial-temporal evolution of climate change and drought variation in Ningxia. A multiple timescales study by Törnros and Menzel [30] highlighted the importance of selecting a correct choice of SPEI/SPI timescale when addressing drought conditions related issues under changing conditions.…”

Section: Standardized Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characteristics of Droughts in South Africa: A Case Study of Free State and North West Provinces

Botai

Dlamini

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:The Free State (FS) and North West (NW) Provinces are often hard hit by droughts with impacts on water availability, farm production and livestock holdings. The South African government declared the two Provinces drought disaster areas in the 2015/2016 hydrological year. This is a major drawback, since both the Provinces play an important role to South African economy as they are a haven to agricultural production and have major water reservoirs in South Africa. This study was undertaken to investigate the historical evolution of drought within the FS and NW Provinces over the past 30 years. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) calculated based on monthly meteorological data from 14 weather/climate stations within the FS and NW Provinces were used to explore and characterize variation in drought intensity, duration, frequency and severity in FS and NW Provinces during 1985-2015. Results indicate that there exist localized positive and negative trends with spatial dependence across the selected stations. In particular, about 60% of the weather stations exhibiting a decreasing trend are located in FS Province, suggesting that FS has being experiencing increasing drought during the analyzed period compared to NW Province. Results from the analysis of drought evaluation indicators (DEIs) calculated from SPEI suggest that drought severity and frequency was more pronounced in FS while the intensity of the drought was more in NW Province during 1985-2015. In addition, based on SPEI calculations, moderate drought occurrences increased during 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 periods and decreased thereafter (2005-2015) in both Provinces. Drought classification based on parameters derived from SPEI produced similar results for mild drought occurrences during the same time scales.

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Section: Standardized Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, there is a compelling body of knowledge that link droughts to other epidemics like famine, diseases and land degradation globally. The inherent characteristics and impacts of droughts on the ecosystem and society at large has made drought the subject of numerous studies (e.g., see [3][4][5][6] and references therein).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of Droughts in South Africa: A Case Study of Free State and North West Provinces

Botai

Dlamini

et al. 2016

Water

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“…SPEI was first proposed by Vicente-Serrano et al [13] as an improved drought index that is particularly suitable for studying the effect of global warming on drought severity [14]. The SPEI follows the same conceptual approach like Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), but rather than concentrating on precipitation alone [2,15], it is based on a monthly climatic water balance (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). SPEI has the advantage of combining multi scalar character with the possibility of including the effects of temperature variability on assessment of drought.…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We have chosen the SPEI-1 time scale which corresponds to the water balance conditions accumulated during one month because this time scale is closely related to meteorological drought [17]. A drought episode starts when the SPEI value falls below zero, followed by a value of −1 or less, and ends when SPEI returns again to positive values [15,18].…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

<strong>A lagrangian analysis of the moisture transport during the 2003 drought episode over the Mediterranean region </strong>

Stojanović

Drumond

Nieto

2017

Proceedings of First International Electronic Conference on the Hydrological Cycle

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In the last decades many studies have pointed out an increasing number of natural hazards associated with extremes in precipitation and droughts over the Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean is located at the border between the tropical climate zone and the mid-latitude climate belt. Due to its large extension and diverse topography, it shows large climatic differences that make its climate scientifically interesting.The aim of this study is to identify the main climatological moisture sources for Mediterranean region during 1980-2015, and to analyze the moisture transport during the meteorological drought episode observed over the area in 2003. This episode was the most severe in the period 1980-2015 according to the one-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-1) analysis. The SPEI-1 was calculated using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU TS3.24.01) precipitation (PRE) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The Mediterranean region was defined according to the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. Analyses of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, omega at 500hPa, and vertically integrated moisture flux have been conducted to characterize the anomalous patterns over the regions during the episode. A Lagrangian approach was then applied in order to investigate possible changes in the moisture transport over the Mediterranean region during the episode. This approach is based on the FLEXiblePARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model integrated with data from the reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) -Interim.Results show that anomalous subsidence, increased PET, and reduced PRE predominated over the region during the episode. The most intensive reduction in the moisture supply for the Mediterranean region was registered from the Mediterranean Sea (MED) source.

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“…To evaluate how well global climate models simulated observed drying or wetting trends, Nasrollahi et al (2015) applied the Mann-Kendall trend test to SPIs derived from global observational climate data, in this case, the dataset from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), and 41 predictions of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Similarly, Tan et al (2015) utilized climate data from 22 meteorological stations in Ningxia, a well-known food production area in Northwest China, and performed Mann-Kendall trend tests with the SPI and SPEI. The degrees of increasing drought frequency and intensity varied with the stations in the study region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of different reference periods on drought index (SPEI) estimations from 1901 to 2014

Kim

Park

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study aims to understand how different reference periods (i.e., calibration periods) of climate data used to estimate drought indices influence regional drought assessments. Specifically, we investigate the influences of different reference periods on historical drought characteristics, such as the trend, frequency, intensity and spatial extent, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month lag (SPEI-12), which was estimated from the datasets of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the University of Delaware (UDEL). For the 1901-1957 (P1) and 1958-2014 (P2) estimation periods, three different types of reference periods are used to compute the SPEI: P1 and P2 together, P1 and P2 separately and P1 only. Focusing on East Asia, Europe, the United States and West Africa, we find that the influence of the reference period is significant in East Asia and West Africa, with dominant drying trends from P1 to P2. The reference period influenced the assessment of drought characteristics, particularly the severity and spatial extent, whereas the influence on the frequency was relatively small. Finally, self-calibration, which is the most common practice for indices such as the SPEI, tends to underestimate the drought severity and spatial extent relative to the other approaches used in this study. Although the conclusions drawn in this study are limited by the use of two global datasets, they highlight the need for clarification of the reference period in drought assessments to better understand regional drought characteristics and the associated temporal changes, particularly under climate change scenarios.

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Temporal-Spatial Variation of Drought Indicated by SPI and SPEI in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Cited by 180 publications

References 61 publications

Characteristics of Droughts in South Africa: A Case Study of Free State and North West Provinces

Characteristics of Droughts in South Africa: A Case Study of Free State and North West Provinces

<strong>A lagrangian analysis of the moisture transport during the 2003 drought episode over the Mediterranean region </strong>

Effects of different reference periods on drought index (SPEI) estimations from 1901 to 2014

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