Temporal patterns of road network development in the Brazilian Amazon

Ahmed, Sadia E.; Souza, Carlos M.; Riberio, Júlia; Ewers, Robert M.

doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0397-z

Cited by 50 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…In Brazil alone, the Amazon road system grew by an average of almost 17,000 kilometres a year between 2004 and 2007 (ref. 1). Across the basin, estimates for the total length of roads vary widely from about 100,000 to 190,000 kilometres of paved and dirt roads cutting through the Amazon.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Deforestation: Carving up the Amazon

Fraser¹

2014

Nature

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Deforestation: Carving up the Amazon

Fraser¹

2014

Nature

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“…In addition, intermodal transport costs are applied for transferring goods between transport modes (Janic, 2007). Infrastructure development can be projected using infrastructure growth algorithms or manually added to explore the impacts of prospective plans such as the new trans-Eurasian Silk Road Economic Belt on virtual water trade and water use (Ahmed et al, 2013;Arima et al, 2008;Brugier, 2014;Walker et al, 2013). Because the infrastructural network constrains where resources can be extracted from the environment and redistributed to meet demand, all resource flows travel via the lower-level physical infrastructural network in a realised version of the model framework (Barber et al, 2014;Khanna, 2016).…”

Section: Virtual Water Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

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“…The first model changes in road density through time as a logistic growth process (following Ahmed et al 2013)…”

Section: No Neighbourhood Effects Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our study is inspired by the application of such methods in population ecology and epidemiology because these are also commonly concerned with predicting large spatio-temporal patterns of properties that grow and spread over time,although in ecology and epidemiology the loss of individuals is also important. In addition, given that Ahmed et al (2013) have already shown roads follow logistic growth dynamics similar to those found among many species' populations, it is natural to extend that analogy to consider the spatio-temporal dynamics of road development as being similar to spatio-temporal population growth (for example like the invasion of an alien species). It is important to note that while models are often developed to enable deeper understanding of what underpins certain phenomena of interest, our goal was primarily to characterize the large-scale spatio-temporal patterns of road development in the Brazilian Amazon, and to investigate how well simple phenomenological models describe it, although we do extendthis to investigate the importance of explicitly distinguishing between local and neighbourhood effects for one of our model formulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large scale spatio-temporal patterns of road development in the Amazon rainforest

2013

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SUMMARYThere is burgeoning interest in predicting road development because of the wide ranging important socioeconomic and environmental issues that roads present, including the close links between road development, deforestation and biodiversity loss. This is especially the case in developing nations, which are high in natural resources, where road development is rapid and often not centrally managed. Characterization of large scale spatio-temporal patterns in road network development has been greatly overlooked to date. This paper examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of road density across the Brazilian Amazon and assesses the relative contributions of local versus neighbourhood effects for temporal changes in road density at regional scales. To achieve this, a combination of statistical analyses and modeldata fusion techniques inspired by studies of spatiotemporal dynamics of populations in ecology and epidemiology were used. The emergent development may be approximated by local growth that is logistic through time and directional dispersal. The current rates and dominant direction of development may be inferred, by assuming that roads develop at a rate of 55 km per year. Large areas of the Amazon will be subject to extensive anthropogenic change should the observed patterns of road development continue.

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Temporal patterns of road network development in the Brazilian Amazon

Cited by 50 publications

References 66 publications

Deforestation: Carving up the Amazon

Deforestation: Carving up the Amazon

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Large scale spatio-temporal patterns of road development in the Amazon rainforest

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