Temporal modelling and forecasting of the airborne pollen of Cupressaceae on the southwestern Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

Cupressaceae includes species cultivated as ornamentals in the urban environment. This study aims to investigate airborne pollen data for Cupressaceae on the southwestern Iberian Peninsula over a 21-year period and to analyse the trends in these data and their relationship with meteorological parameters using time series analysis. Aerobiological sampling was conducted from 1993 to 2013 in Badajoz (SW Spain). The main pollen season for Cupressaceae lasted, on average, 58 days, ranging from 55 to 112 days, from 24 January to 22 March. Furthermore, a short-term forecasting model has been developed for daily pollen concentrations. The model proposed to forecast the airborne pollen concentration is described by one equation. This expression is composed of two terms: the first term represents the pollen concentration trend in the air according to the average concentration of the previous 10 days; the second term is obtained from considering the actual pollen concentration value, which is calculated based on the most representative meteorological parameters multiplied by a fitting coefficient. Temperature was the main meteorological factor by its influence over daily pollen forecast, being the rain the second most important factor. This model represents a good approach to a continuous balance model of Cupressaceae pollen concentration and is supported by a close agreement between the observed and predicted mean concentrations. The novelty of the proposed model is the analysis of meteorological parameters that are not frequently used in Aerobiology.

Differences in Reporting the Ragweed Pollen Season Using Google Trends across 15 Countries

“…However, more data are required. Combining several sources of information using advanced data engineering may also be important, but the data generated are complex and not yet available for all pollen species [4-7, 11]. …”

“…It is therefore essential to be able to forecast the onset of the pollen season as well as to characterise seasons in different places. Sentinel networks offer the potential to meet this need [4-7]. Pollen counts can forecast the exposure to pollen [8].…”

Aerobiologia do pólen de Cupressáceas em Portugal

“…As Cupressáceas, como plantas anemófilas, produzem e libertam uma grande quantidade de pólen para a atmosfera, o que gera elevados níveis de pólen na atmosfera de muitas localidades em todo o Mundo e, particularmente, na região mediterrânica, onde existe uma importante presença de espécies desta família 4 . Apesar da diversidade de espécies incluídas no tipo Cupressaceae, a maior parte do pólen coletado provém de plantas do género AEROBIOLOGIA DO PÓLEN DE CUPRESSÁCEAS EM PORTUGAL / ARTIGO ORIGINAL métodos mais utilizados na literatura 4,6,22,24,25 Os resultados aerobiológicos aqui obtidos vão de encontro aos obtidos noutras localidades portuguesas 15 , mediterrânicas 4,6,24,25,26,32,33 e noutras partes do mundo 10,19,31,34 .…”

Aerobiology in the International Journal of Biometeorology, 1957–2017

“…Traditional observation-based models employ a number of different methods to relate records of airborne pollen or phenological observations to one or more variables that can be measured or predicted, usually meteorological data. Examples in IJB include regression models (Laaidi et al 2003;Smith and Emberlin 2006;Sabariego et al 2012), time series models Silva-Palacios et al 2016), computational intelligence techniques (Puc 2012; Navares and Aznarte 2017) and process-based phenological models (Schaber and Badeck 2003;Kasprzyk 2009). The main drawback of such models is that they are generally specific to a particular site, although there are some exceptions (e.g.…”