Temporal effects of disturbance on community composition in simulated stage‐structured plant communities

Wang, Youshi; Wen, Shujun; Ellwood, M. D. Farnon; Miller, Adam D.; Chu, Chengjin

doi:10.1002/ece3.3660

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Our core hypothesis is that areas with greater warming will have experienced stronger vegetation changes than areas with less warming (Chen, Hill, Ohlemuller, Roy, & Thomas, 2011;Wang, Wen, Farnon Ellwood, Miller, & Chu, 2017). We take advantage of this unique combination of original studies along a warming gradient to perform a regional-scale analysis of temporal change in forest plant communities.…”

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Four decades of plant community change along a continental gradient of warming

Becker‐Scarpitta

Vissault

Vellend

2019

Global Change Biology

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Many studies of individual sites have revealed biotic changes consistent with climate warming (e.g., upward elevational distribution shifts), but our understanding of the tremendous variation among studies in the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal. In this study, we resurveyed forest vegetation plots 40 years after the initial surveys in three protected areas along a west‐to‐east gradient of increasingly steep recent warming trends in eastern Canada (Québec). Consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming has been an important driver of vegetation change, we found an increasing magnitude of changes in species richness and composition from west to east among the three parks. For the two mountainous parks, we found no significant changes in elevational species’ distributions in the easternmost park (raw mean = +11.4 m at Forillon Park) where warming has been minimal, and significant upward distribution shifts in the centrally located park (+38.9 m at Mont‐Mégantic), where the recent warming trend has been marked. Community Temperature Indices (CTI), reflecting the average affinities of locally co‐occurring species to temperature conditions across their geographic ranges (“Species Temperature Indices”), did not change over time as predicted. However, close examination of the underpinnings of CTI values suggested a high sensitivity to uncertainty in individual species’ temperature indices, and so a potentially limited responsiveness to warming. Overall, by testing a priori predictions concerning variation among parks in the direction and magnitude of vegetation changes, we have provided stronger evidence for a link between climate warming and biotic responses than otherwise possible and provided a potential explanation for large variation among studies in warming‐related biotic changes.

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confidence: 99%

Four decades of plant community change along a continental gradient of warming

Becker‐Scarpitta

Vissault

Vellend

2019

Global Change Biology

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“…Our core hypothesis is that areas with greater warming will have experienced stronger 100 vegetation changes than areas with less warming (Chen et al, 2011; Wang et al, 2017). 101…”

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confidence: 99%

Four decades of plant community change along a continental gradient of warming

Becker‐Scarpitta

Vissault

Vellend

2018

Preprint

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17Many studies of individual sites have revealed biotic changes consistent with climate 18 warming (e.g., upward elevational distribution shifts), but our understanding of the 19 tremendous variation among studies in the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal. 20In this study we re-surveyed forest vegetation plots 40 years after the initial surveys in 21 three protected areas along a west-to-east gradient of increasingly steep recent warming 22However, close examination of the underpinnings of CTI values suggested a high 32 sensitivity to uncertainty in individual species' temperature indices, and so a potentially 33 limited responsiveness to warming. Overall, by testing a priori predictions concerning 34 variation among parks in the direction and magnitude of vegetation changes, we have 35 provided stronger evidence for a link between climate warming and biotic responses than 36 otherwise possible, and provided a potential explanation for large variation among studies 37 in warming-related biotic changes. 38

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“…Conversely, dynamics at impacted sites will likely be driven by exogenous environmental factors, which leave signatures that depart from stochasticity (e.g. [21]).…”

Section: The Time Machine Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%