Temporal Changes in Long-Distance Running Performance of Asian Children between 1964 and 2009

Abstract

Aerobic fitness is considered to be an important marker of current health and even a predictor of future health. The aim of this study was to systematically analyse the available scientific information on temporal changes in maximal long-distance running performance (a widely and long-used marker of aerobic fitness) of Asian children. A systematic review of the scientific literature was undertaken to locate studies explicitly reporting on temporal changes (spanning a minimum of 5 years) in maximal long-distance running of apparently healthy (free from known disease or injury) Asian children aged 9-17 years. Studies were located up to October 2010 via computerized searching of bibliographical databases, reference list searching and personal communication with international experts. Temporal changes were analysed at the country by sex by age by test level using best-fitting linear or polynomial regression models relating the year of testing to long-distance running performances expressed as average running speeds. Changes in means were expressed as percent changes and as standardized effect sizes. Eight studies reporting temporal changes in the long-distance running performance of 23,897,571 children aged 9-17 years from four Asian countries over the period 1964-2009 were included. Overall, there was a large decline in long-distance running performance equivalent to -16.6 ± 1.3% (mean change ± 95% confidence interval) or -1.2 ± 0.1 standard deviations. Temporal changes were generally consistent for different sex and age groups, but not for different countries, with large declines observed for children from China and the Republic of Korea, small declines for children from Japan and very small declines for children from Singapore. There is overwhelming evidence of meaningful declines in the maximal long-distance running performance of Asian children in recent decades, which are probably caused by a network of social, behavioural, physical, psychosocial and physiological factors. These declines highlight the need for regular surveillance of Asian children's health-related fitness and proactive public health strategies.

International normative 20 m shuttle run values from 1 142 026 children and youth representing 50 countries

“…The 20mSRT data were also collected at different times over the period 1981–2014, and given convincing evidence of international declines in children's CRE in recent decades,1 23 229 our norms may be biased. With a mean measurement year of 2000, and assuming an international decline of ∼5% per decade since 1975,1 23 our normative data may overestimate values in 2014 by ∼7.5% (equivalent to ∼0.65 standardised units or ∼24 centile points) and represent a better health-related picture than what would be true today.…”

“…With a mean measurement year of 2000, and assuming an international decline of ∼5% per decade since 1975,1 23 our normative data may overestimate values in 2014 by ∼7.5% (equivalent to ∼0.65 standardised units or ∼24 centile points) and represent a better health-related picture than what would be true today. However, without time trend data for all included countries and evidence of recent improvements in children's CRE in some included countries (eg, Australia,28 Japan229 and Spain230), time-based corrections of our normative data are not recommended. Despite relying predominantly on data from high-income economies, there is no good evidence that 20mSRT performance is meaningfully related to a country's affluence or distribution of wealth,21 231 so our norms are unlikely to be biased.…”

The Validity of US Nutritional Surveillance: USDA’s Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data Series 1971-2010

“…With the incorporation of decreasing levels of population PA (as suggested by multiple lines of research 47-54,69 ), the range of the disparity between the LAFA data series and TEE increased to > 500 kcal/d. Our inclusion of the empirically supported decreasing trends in PA is a significant strength that overcomes the limitations of previous research examining the LAFA data series.…”

“…47-49 There is also very strong evidence that cardiorespiratory fitness (ie, an objective measure of the confluence of inherited capabilities and recent patterns of PA) in children has declined precipitously across the globe over the past 3 decades. 51-54 As such, a sensitivity analysis was conducted where disparity values were calculated using the TEE L-ACT for the period of 1971-1980 and the TEE SED value for subsequent years. These analyses are supported by evidence that the largest declines in PA in the US population may have occurred prior to the 1980s.…”

“…43 Additionally, multiple lines of research suggest substantial changes in physical activity (PA), PA-related cardiorespiratory fitness, and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) over the past 5 decades. 4,47-54 These trends suggest large corresponding changes in total daily energy expenditure (TEE) and nutrient-energy partitioning 4 that necessitate an examination of the assumption of the overestimation of caloric consumption as well as quantification of misestimation over time. Therefore, the objective of this study was to critically examine both the assumption that the USDA LAFA data series consistently overestimates actual consumption and the validity of this surveillance tool to estimate trends in caloric consumption from 1971-2010.…”