Temporal Cascade Model for Analyzing Spread in Evolving Networks

Abstract

Current approaches for modeling propagation in networks (e.g., of diseases, computer viruses, rumors) cannot adequately capture temporal properties such as order/duration of evolving connections or dynamic likelihoods of propagation along connections. Temporal models on evolving networks are crucial in applications that need to analyze dynamic spread. For example, a disease spreading virus has varying transmissibility based on interactions between individuals occurring with different frequency, proximity, and venue population density. Similarly, propagation of information having a limited active period, such as rumors, depends on the temporal dynamics of social interactions. To capture such behaviors, we first develop the Temporal Independent Cascade (T-IC) model with a spread function that efficiently utilizes a hypergraph-based sampling strategy and dynamic propagation probabilities. We prove this function to be submodular, with guarantees of approximation quality. This enables scalable analysis on highly granular temporal networks where other models struggle, such as when the spread across connections exhibits arbitrary temporally evolving patterns. We then introduce the notion of ‘reverse spread’ using the proposed T-IC processes, and develop novel solutions to identify both sentinel/detector nodes and highly susceptible nodes. Extensive analysis on real-world datasets shows that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the alternatives in modeling both if and how spread occurs, by considering evolving network topology alongside granular contact/interaction information. Our approach has numerous applications, such as virus/rumor/influence tracking. Utilizing T-IC, we explore vital challenges of monitoring the impact of various intervention strategies over real spatio-temporal contact networks where we show our approach to be highly effective.

TSA based optimization to dc voltage and dc modulation for high-voltage ride-through (HVRT) of DFIG: School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China

“…Kempe et al originally introduced two fundamental models of information dissemination: the Independent Cascade Model (IC) [3] and the Linear Threshold Model (LT) [4]. Considering the influence of time, [5] introduced the T-IC model, effectively capturing the temporal aspects of the network. A new model called the cycle-aware intelligent method was proposed by [6].…”

“…Since the effective time of information dissemination can impact the dissemination range, taking this factor into account, [12] proposed the T-IC model. Zhou et al introduced a cycle-aware intelligent prediction method [13].…”

“…Existing social network information dissemination model research is mainly based on two classic models: the Independent Cascade (IC) Model [3] and the Linear Threshold (LT) Model [4]. For example, based on the IC model, researchers have carried out a large number of studies considering the influence of time [5][6][7], user emotions [8][9][10], topics [11][12][13][14], and individual preferences [14][15][16][17][18].…”

“…1: Traditional Network Model. mation dissemination timing [12,13], and user emotions [14][15][16], into IC model.…”