Temporal and Spatial Divergence of Embodied Carbon Emissions Transfer and the Drivers—Evidence from China’s Domestic Trade

Abstract

To understand the embodied carbon transfer in China’s domestic trade from 2007 to 2017 and its driving forces, we quantitatively measured the embodied carbon transfer among 30 provinces by using the Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, explored the temporal and spatial evolutionary features of the interprovincial embodied carbon emission transfer by using spatial autocorrelation, and further revealed its drivers using the Geographical Detector Model for the first time. We find that: (1) Based on the producer and consumer accounting principles, the amount of embodied carbon emissions of each province has increased, and there are huge differences. (2) The number of provinces with net embodied carbon emissions transfer is increasing, to 18 in 2017 and the target provinces are mostly energy-rich regions, such as Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, which have a severe “carbon leakage” phenomenon with developed coastal provinces. (3) The scale and spatial distribution of net carbon transfer out shows a characteristic of “high in the north and low in the south”, and the tendency of net transfer from the less developed provinces to the developed regions is becoming more and more obvious. (4) The global differences in the promoting factors of the net embodied carbon transfer are not prominent, but the differences at the local scale are significant, with energy intensity and environmental regulation playing an increasingly significant role. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen low-carbon technology innovation and environmental regulation, increase the percentage of renewable energy consumption, accelerate the mobility of various resource factors, and improve energy utilization efficiency.