Temporal and regional variability of Arctic sea-ice coverage from satellite data

Peng, Ge; Meier, Walter N.

doi:10.1017/aog.2017.32

Cited by 51 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The regional boundaries in this work are similar to those used in many other studies (e.g. Meier et al 2007, Peng and Meier 2017, Bliss and Anderson 2018. It should be noted that local forcing on the dates at scales smaller than the regions used here warrant further investigation (e.g.…”

Section: Methodology For Regional Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…Since late 1978, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to continuously monitor seasonal changes in sea ice concentration (SIC; the fractional coverage of sea ice within a grid cell) and sea ice extent (SIE; the summed area of grid cells where SIC 15%). During this period, SIE (Comiso et al 2008, Cavalieri and Parkinson 2012, Peng and Meier 2017, thickness Schweiger 2015, Kwok 2018), age (Maslanik et al 2007), and volume (Kwok et al 2009) have declined dramatically. Arctic sea ice is now more susceptible to earlier melt onset (MO) (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

Bliss

Steele

Peng

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The seasonal evolution of Arctic sea ice can be described by the timing of key dates of sea ice concentration (SIC) change during its annual retreat and advance cycle. Here, we use SICs from a satellite passive microwave climate data record to identify the sea ice dates of opening (DOO), retreat (DOR), advance (DOA), and closing (DOC) and the periods of time between these events. Regional variability in these key dates, periods, and sea ice melt onset and freeze-up dates for 12 Arctic regions during the melt seasons of 1979-2016 is investigated. We find statistically significant positive trends in the length of the melt season (outer ice-free period) for most of the eastern Arctic, the Bering Sea, and Hudson and Baffin Bays with trends as large as 11.9 d decade −1 observed in the Kara Sea. Trends in the DOR and DOA contribute to statistically significant increases in the length of the open water period for all regions within the Arctic Ocean ranging from 3.9 to 13.8 d decade −1 . The length of the ice retreat period (DOR−DOO) ranges from 17.1 d in the Sea of Okhotsk to 41 d in the Greenland Sea. The length of the ice advance period (DOC−DOA) is generally much shorter and ranges from 17.9 to 25.3 d in the Sea of Okhotsk and Greenland Sea, respectively. Additionally, we derive the extent of the seasonal ice zone (SIZ) and find statistically significant negative trends (SIZ is shrinking) in the Sea of Okhotsk, Baffin Bay, Greenland Sea, and Barents Sea regions, which are geographically open to the oceans and influenced by reduced winter sea ice extent. Within regions of the Arctic Ocean, statistically significant positive trends indicate that the extent of the SIZ is expanding as Arctic summer sea ice declines.

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Section: Methodology For Regional Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

Bliss

Steele

Peng

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The weakening of the Aleutian low was driven by cooling sea surface temperatures associated with a shift toward a more negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Wendler et al, ). However, a recent update of the sea ice extent record through 2015 reports that the positive trend in the Bering Sea ice extent maxima still exists, although negative sea ice extent anomalies in the last few years may erode the trend causing it to change signs (Peng & Meier, ). The addition of the latest 5 years of data to the AHRA MO date record including the string of negative MO date anomalies in 2014–2016 and a neutral anomaly in 2017 (Figure ) have reduced the long‐term trend from +3.1 days/decade (significant at α = 0.05; Bliss & Anderson, ) to +1.61 days/decade (not significant; Table ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset Timing From Passive Microwave‐Based and Surface Air Temperature‐Based Methods

Bliss

Anderson

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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Melt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice has been monitored using satellite‐based passive microwave (PMW) observations since 1979. In this work, surface air temperatures from the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface and NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder are used to derive MO date estimates using three threshold methods which are then compared with a record of PMW‐based MO dates. Results from the PMW data indicate a shift toward increasingly early MO timing, with significant trends as large as −9.45 days/decade in the E. Siberian Sea and −5.69 days/decade for the entire Arctic, consistent with other studies highlighting the overall decline of Arctic sea ice. Results indicate that the surface air temperature‐based MO date estimates produced using a −1 °C threshold are ~11 days later than the PMW‐based MO date estimates Arctic wide. A statistical comparison of the Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface and PMW‐based MO dates indicate that despite the ~11‐day bias, correlations between the MO date time series are generally good (≥0.6) for most of the Arctic Ocean while the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and PMW‐based MO dates are generally better at capturing the statistically similar long‐term trends in MO dates for the Arctic and several Arctic subregions. Application of these results can contribute to the development of new methods to monitor the sea ice melting state.

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“…This analysis does not take into account the different regional declines of SIE, as shown in [15,21,22]. The first ice-free summer year projection is expected to be very variable on the regional scale.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

Peng

Matthews

2018

Remote Sensing

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An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

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Temporal and regional variability of Arctic sea-ice coverage from satellite data

Cited by 51 publications

References 20 publications

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset Timing From Passive Microwave‐Based and Surface Air Temperature‐Based Methods

Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

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