Temporal Analysis of Vaccine Adverse Effects for Causation Inference
Carla Sofia Carvalho
Abstract:We present a formalism to assess the safety of the COVID19 vaccines and infer a causal relation between vaccine administration and adverse effects, in particular death. We use data on adverse effects from VAERS covering the time interval [01-10-2020, 31-12-2021] (downloaded on 1 Feb 2022). We measure a vaccine fatality rate of order 0.01 for all vaccine manufacturers and identify a strong heterogeneity in the vaccine toxicity across vaccine lots, spanning up to four orders of magnitude. We compute the correlat… Show more
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